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Output falls and the international transmission of crises

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Abstract

Economic crises are usually transmitted across countries via either price or quantity shocks on the balance of payments. This paper complements the literature on international trade and business cycles by analyzing the role of imported intermediates goods inputs during the Great Financial Crisis in small open economies. We find that in an increasingly integrated world, intra-industry international trade is an important channel of propagation of shocks. A depreciation of the real exchange rate rises to costs of intermediate output, which decreases production. Our quantitative model is able to reproduce both the intensity and the velocity of the crisis in Mexico.

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  • Brinca, Pedro & João, Costa-Filho, 2021. "Output falls and the international transmission of crises," MPRA Paper 107297, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:107297
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    Cited by:

    1. Pedro Brinca & João Ricardo Costa Filho & Francesca Loria, 2024. "Business cycle accounting: What have we learned so far?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(4), pages 1276-1316, September.
    2. Scholl, Christoph, 2022. "COVID-19 and the GDP fall in Germany: A Business Cycle Accounting Approach," MPRA Paper 111570, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Fernandes, Daniel, 2022. "Business Cycle Accounting for the COVID-19 Recession," MPRA Paper 111577, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Great Recession; Intermediate goods; Business Cycle Accounting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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