IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bpj/bejmac/v8y2008i1n25.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Japanese Depression in the Interwar Period: A General Equilibrium Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Saijo Hikaru

    (University of Pennsylvania and University of Tokyo)

Abstract

This paper studies the Japanese depression in the interwar period using the business cycle accounting methodology and a general equilibrium model with time-varying markups. I find that the initial slowdown of the economy can be explained by a decline in productivity. However, I also find that when only productivity change is taken into account, a prototype neoclassical growth model predicts that in the 1930s, output recovers more rapidly than is actually supported by the data. Using restrictions from theory, I quantify the contribution of an increase in markups in the manufacturing and mining sectors and find that a substantial fraction of the weak recovery can be explained by this factor. I argue that this increase in markups is caused by government-promoted cartelization.

Suggested Citation

  • Saijo Hikaru, 2008. "The Japanese Depression in the Interwar Period: A General Equilibrium Analysis," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 1-26, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:bejmac:v:8:y:2008:i:1:n:25
    DOI: 10.2202/1935-1690.1614
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.2202/1935-1690.1614
    Download Restriction: For access to full text, subscription to the journal or payment for the individual article is required.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.2202/1935-1690.1614?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Prescott, Edward C., 1986. "Theory ahead of business-cycle measurement," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 11-44, January.
    2. Erasmus Kersting, 2008. "The 1980s Recession in the UK: A Business Cycle Accounting Perspective," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(1), pages 179-191, January.
    3. Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2002. "The French Depression in the 1930s," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 5(1), pages 73-99, January.
    4. Felipe Meza, 2008. "Financial Crisis, Fiscal Policy, and the 1995 GDP Contraction in Mexico," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(6), pages 1239-1261, September.
    5. Lee E. Ohanian, 2002. "Why did productivity fall so much during the Great Depression?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 26(Spr).
    6. Kobayashi, Keiichiro & Inaba, Masaru, 2006. "Business cycle accounting for the Japanese economy," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 418-440, December.
    7. Lawrence J. Christiano & Roberto Motto & Massimo Rostagno, 2003. "The Great Depression and the Friedman-Schwartz hypothesis," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 1119-1215.
    8. Jonas D. M. Fisher, 2006. "The Dynamic Effects of Neutral and Investment-Specific Technology Shocks," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 114(3), pages 413-451, June.
    9. Jonas D.M. Fisher & Andreas Hornstein, 2002. "The Role of Real Wages, Productivity, and Fiscal Policy in Germany's Great Depression 1928-37," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 5(1), pages 100-127, January.
    10. Jonas D.M. Fisher & Andreas Hornstein, 2002. "The Role of Real Wages, Productivity, and Fiscal Policy in Germany's Great Depression 1928-37," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 5(1), pages 100-127, January.
    11. Fumio Hayashi & Edward C. Prescott, 2008. "The Depressing Effect of Agricultural Institutions on the Prewar Japanese Economy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 116(4), pages 573-632, August.
    12. Harold L. Cole & Lee E. Ohanian, 1999. "The Great Depression in the United States from a neoclassical perspective," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 23(Win), pages 2-24.
    13. Chakraborty, Suparna, 2009. "The boom and the bust of the Japanese economy: A quantitative look at the period 1980-2000," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 116-131, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Masaru Inaba & Kengo Nutahara, 2012. "An application of business cycle accounting with misspecified wedges," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 15(2), pages 265-269, April.
    2. Brinca, Pedro & João, Costa-Filho, 2021. "Output falls and the international transmission of crises," MPRA Paper 107297, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Otsu Keisuke, 2009. "A Neoclassical Analysis of the Postwar Japanese Economy," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-30, May.
    4. Brinca, Pedro & Costa-Filho, João, 2021. "Economic depression in Brazil: the 2014-2016 fall," MPRA Paper 107298, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Petre Caraiani, 2016. "Business Cycle Accounting for Peripheral European Economies," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 63(5), pages 468-496, November.
    6. Matheus Cardoso Leal & Marcio Issao Nakane, 2022. "Brazilian economy in the 2000’s: A tale of two recessions," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2022_20, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    7. Pedro Brinca & João Ricardo Costa Filho & Francesca Loria, 2024. "Business cycle accounting: What have we learned so far?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(4), pages 1276-1316, September.
    8. Masaru Inaba & Kengo Nutahara, 2012. "An application of business cycle accounting with misspecified wedges," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 15(2), pages 265-269, April.
    9. Emmanuel Ameyaw, 2023. "The relevance of domestic and foreign factors in driving Ghana’s business cycle," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 3(9), pages 1-33, September.
    10. Otsu Keisuke, 2010. "A Neoclassical Analysis of the Asian Crisis: Business Cycle Accounting for a Small Open Economy," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-39, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cardi, Olivier & Restout, Romain, 2023. "Sectoral fiscal multipliers and technology in open economy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    2. Luca Pensieroso & Romain Restout, 2018. "The Gold Standard and the Great Depression: a Dynamic General Equilibrium Model," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2018016, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    3. Luca Pensieroso & Romain Restout, 2021. "The Gold Standard and the International Dimension of the Great Depression," Working Papers of BETA 2021-21, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    4. Luca Pensieroso, 2011. "Real business cycle models of the Great Depression," Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 5(2), pages 101-119, June.
    5. Luca PENSIEROSO, 2010. "The Great Depression in Belgium: an Open-Economy Analysis," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2010023, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    6. Klein, Alexander & Otsuy, Keisuke, 2013. "Efficiency, Distortions and Factor Utilization during the Interwar Period," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 147, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    7. Alex Klein & Keisuke Otsu, 2013. "Efficiency, Distortions and Factor Utilization during the Interwar Period," Studies in Economics 1317, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    8. Hansen, G.D. & Ohanian, L.E., 2016. "Neoclassical Models in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2043-2130, Elsevier.
    9. Keiichiro Kobayashi & Masaru Inaba, 2006. "Borrowing constraints and protracted recessions," Discussion papers 06011, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    10. Prescott, E.C., 2016. "RBC Methodology and the Development of Aggregate Economic Theory," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1759-1787, Elsevier.
    11. Harold L. Cole & Lee E. Ohanian, 2013. "The Impact of Cartelization, Money, and Productivity Shocks on the International Great Depression," NBER Working Papers 18823, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Mark Weder, 2006. "Some Observations on the Great Depression in Germany," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 7(1), pages 113-133, February.
    13. Pedro Brinca & João Ricardo Costa Filho & Francesca Loria, 2024. "Business cycle accounting: What have we learned so far?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(4), pages 1276-1316, September.
    14. Albrecht Ritschl & Monique Ebell, 2007. "Real Origins of the Great Depression: Monopoly Power, Unions and the American Business Cycle in the 1920s," 2007 Meeting Papers 712, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    15. Otsu Keisuke, 2010. "A Neoclassical Analysis of the Asian Crisis: Business Cycle Accounting for a Small Open Economy," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-39, July.
    16. Ebell, Monique & Ritschl, Albrecht, 2007. "Real origins of the Great Depression: Monopolistic competition, union power, and the American business cycle in the 1920s," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2007-006, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    17. Brinca, Pedro & João, Costa-Filho, 2021. "Output falls and the international transmission of crises," MPRA Paper 107297, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Giménez, Eduardo L. & Montero, María, 2015. "The Great Depression in Spain," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 200-214.
    19. Matheus Cardoso Leal & Marcio Issao Nakane, 2022. "Brazilian economy in the 2000’s: A tale of two recessions," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2022_20, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    20. Franck Portier, 2008. "Interprétation d'épisodes historiques à l'aide de modèles dynamiques stochastiques d'équilibre général," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 0(4), pages 33-46.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bpj:bejmac:v:8:y:2008:i:1:n:25. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Golla (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.degruyter.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.