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Business cycle accounting of the BRIC economies

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  • Chakraborty Suparna

    (Department of Economics, University of San Francisco, 2130 Fulton Street, San Francisco, California 94117, USA We are deeply grateful to the editor, Dr. Tiago Cavalcanti, and two anonymous referees for their suggestions to improve the paper. We also thank Robert Dekle, Guillaume Vandenbroucke, Joel David, and Jagjit Chaddha for helpful suggestions and comments. We have also benefited from comments by audiences at the University of Southern California, 8th Annual Conference on Economic Growth and Development, Indian Statistical Institute 2012, and the 2012 Asian Meeting of the Econometric Society, Delhi School of Economics. Our special thanks to Tetsuaki Takano for excellent research assistance. Chakraborty gratefully acknowledges financial support from the University of San Francisco Faculty Development Fund. All remaining errors are our own.)

  • Otsu Keisuke

    (School of Economics, University of Kent, Canterbury, Kent, UK We are deeply grateful to the editor, Dr. Tiago Cavalcanti, and two anonymous referees for their suggestions to improve the paper. We also thank Robert Dekle, Guillaume Vandenbroucke, Joel David, and Jagjit Chaddha for helpful suggestions and comments. We have also benefited from comments by audiences at the University of Southern California, 8th Annual Conference on Economic Growth and Development, Indian Statistical Institute 2012, and the 2012 Asian Meeting of the Econometric Society, Delhi School of Economics. Our special thanks to Tetsuaki Takano for excellent research assistance. Chakraborty gratefully acknowledges financial support from the University of San Francisco Faculty Development Fund. All remaining errors are our own.)

Abstract

Drawing upon the experiences of Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRIC), we apply the Business Cycle Accounting methodology to study the phenomenon of rapid economic growth. We document that while efficiency wedges do contribute in a large part to growth, especially in Brazil and Russia, there is an increasing importance of investment wedges especially in the late 2000s, noted in China and India. The results are typically related to the stages of development with Brazil and Russia coming off a recession in the 1990s to grow in the 2000s, while India and China were on a comparatively stable growth path. Our results suggest, at least for the BRICs examined, that while efficiency wedges play a major role in jump-starting recovery, investment wedges are equally important for sustaining the recovery. Relating wedge patterns to institutional and financial reforms, we find that financial market developments and effective governance in BRICs in the last decade are consistent with improvements in investment and efficiency wedges that led to growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Chakraborty Suparna & Otsu Keisuke, 2013. "Business cycle accounting of the BRIC economies," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 13(1), pages 381-413, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:bejmac:v:13:y:2013:i:1:p:33:n:13
    DOI: 10.1515/bejm-2012-0129
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    2. Brinca, Pedro & João, Costa-Filho, 2021. "Output falls and the international transmission of crises," MPRA Paper 107297, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Brinca, P. & Chari, V.V. & Kehoe, P.J. & McGrattan, E., 2016. "Accounting for Business Cycles," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1013-1063, Elsevier.
    4. Brinca, Pedro & Costa-Filho, João, 2021. "Economic depression in Brazil: the 2014-2016 fall," MPRA Paper 107298, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Chun Chang & Kaiji Chen & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2016. "Trends and Cycles in China's Macroeconomy," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 30(1), pages 1-84.
    6. Kshitiz Mishra & Partha Chatterjee, 2021. "Monetary Business Cycle Accounting Analysis of Indian Economy," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 19(3), pages 471-491, September.
    7. Fernando del Río & Francisco‐Xavier Lores, 2023. "Accounting for the role of investment frictions in recessions," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 90(360), pages 1089-1118, October.
    8. Jagjit Chadha & Young-Kwan Kang, 2016. "Finance and Credit in a Model of Monetary Policy," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 471, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    9. Gerth Florian & Otsu Keisuke, 2018. "The post-crisis slump in Europe: a business cycle accounting analysis," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 18(1), pages 1-25, January.
    10. Madanizadeh, Seyed Ali & Karimirad, Ali & Rahmati, Mohammad H., 2019. "Business cycle accounting of trade barriers in a small open economy," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 67-78.
    11. Germaschewski, Yin & Horvath, Jaroslav & Rubini, Loris, 2021. "Property rights, expropriations, and business cycles in China," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    12. Ibhagui, Oyakhilome, 2019. "Explaining differences in income levels of Africa's largest economies: A development accounting perspective," International Journal of Development and Conflict, Gokhale Institute of Politics and Economics, vol. 9(2), pages 216-248.
    13. Daniel Fehrle & Johannes Huber, 2020. "Business cycle accounting for the German fiscal stimulus program during the Great Recession," Discussion Paper Series 339, Universitaet Augsburg, Institute for Economics.
    14. Matheus Cardoso Leal & Marcio Issao Nakane, 2022. "Brazilian economy in the 2000’s: A tale of two recessions," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2022_20, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    15. John Bailey Jones & Sohini Sahu, 2017. "Transition accounting for India in a multi-sector dynamic general equilibrium model," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 50(4), pages 299-339, November.
    16. Ibhagui, Oyakhilome, 2019. "Explaining Differences in Income Levels of Africa’s Largest Economies – A Development Accounting Perspective," MPRA Paper 95622, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Pedro Brinca & João Ricardo Costa Filho & Francesca Loria, 2024. "Business cycle accounting: What have we learned so far?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(4), pages 1276-1316, September.
    18. Ge, Xinyu & Li, Xiao-Lin & Li, Yong & Liu, Yan, 2022. "The driving forces of China's business cycles: Evidence from an estimated DSGE model with housing and banking," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    19. Masaru INABA & Kengo NUTAHARA & Daichi SHIRAI, 2023. "Sources of Inequality and Business Cycles: Evidence from the US and Japan," CIGS Working Paper Series 23-006E, The Canon Institute for Global Studies.
    20. Gerth Florian & Otsu Keisuke, 2018. "The post-crisis slump in Europe: a business cycle accounting analysis," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 18(1), pages 1-25, January.
    21. del Río, Fernando & Lores, Francisco-Xavier, 2021. "Accounting for U.S. economic growth 1954–2017," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    22. Jiang, Dou, 2023. "Output drops in ASEAN-5 countries: A business cycle accounting perspective," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    23. Ibhagui, Oyakhilome, 2015. "Development Accounting of Africa’s Largest Economies – Explaining Differences in Income Levels," MPRA Paper 89081, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    24. Nopphawan Photphisutthiphong & Mark Weder, 2016. "Observations on the Australian Business Cycle," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 12(2), pages 141-164, December.
    25. del Río, Fernando & Lores, Francisco-Xavier, 2020. "Accounting for U.S. post-war economic growth," MPRA Paper 100716, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    BRIC; business cycle accounting; efficiency; investment adjustment costs; market frictions; trend shocks; JEL Codes: E32; E66;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions

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