IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/105182.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Расчетная Модель Общего Равновесия Для Оценки Экономического Эффекта Ранней Диагностики Болезни Паркинсона
[Computable general equilibrium model for assessing the economic effect of early diagnosis of Parkinson's disease]

Author

Listed:
  • Tourdyeva, Natalia
  • Bogatova, Irina
  • Vartanov, Sergey
  • Denisova, Irina
  • Chubarova, Tatiana
  • Shakleina, Marina
  • Polterovich, Victor

Abstract

This paper presents a new CGE model of the Russian economy with a health block. We estimate effects of Parkinson's disease (PD) on the Russian economy and population. We distinguish two mechanisms transmitting effects of the PD: a change in the quality of life of a representative household and a decrease in labor supply due to early retirement caused by PD. Our main focus is on effects of early diagnosis of PD coupled with the use of neuroprotective therapy at the prodromal stage of PD. Calculations showed that the cumulative economic effect of PD on the Russian economy, taking into account the forecast of an increase in the incidence of PD over 30 years, can lead to a loss of real GDP in the amount of -0.86%, and a decrease in the utility of households over the same period in the amount of -1.11% of the consumption level of the base year. The high efficiency of early diagnosis in combination with neuroprotective therapy was shown: the cumulative effect, taking into account the prognosis of an increase in the incidence of PD over 30 years of using this method, can give a gain of about 0.68% of the base year GDP, which is accompanied by an increase in the welfare of a representative consumer in the amount of 0.88 % of the baseline consumption. We show that the prevailing channel of influence of PD on macroeconomic parameters is the effect of a reduction in the supply of labor due to an increase in the disability of patients with PD.

Suggested Citation

  • Tourdyeva, Natalia & Bogatova, Irina & Vartanov, Sergey & Denisova, Irina & Chubarova, Tatiana & Shakleina, Marina & Polterovich, Victor, 2021. "Расчетная Модель Общего Равновесия Для Оценки Экономического Эффекта Ранней Диагностики Болезни Паркинсона [Computable general equilibrium model for assessing the economic effect of early diagnosis," MPRA Paper 105182, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:105182
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/105182/24/MPRA_paper_105182.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Irina A. Denisova & Tatiana V. Chubarova & Irina E. Bogatova & Sergei A. Vartanov & Valerian G. Kucheryanu & ViÑ tor M. Polterovich & Natalia A. Turdyeva & Marina V. Shakleina, 2020. "Estimating economic efficiency of preclinical diagnostics of Parkinson disease with cost-utility approach," Population and Economics, ARPHA Platform, vol. 4(3), pages 111-127, December.
    2. Jesper Jensen & Thomas Rutherford & David Tarr, 2014. "The Impact of Liberalizing Barriers to Foreign Direct Investment in Services: The Case of Russian Accession to the World Trade Organization," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: APPLIED TRADE POLICY MODELING IN 16 COUNTRIES Insights and Impacts from World Bank CGE Based Projects, chapter 6, pages 125-149, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. Inge Mayeres & Denise Van Regemorter, 2008. "Modelling the Health Related Benefits of Environmental Policies and Their Feedback Effects: A CGE Analysis for the EU Countries with GEM-E3," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 135-150.
    4. David A. Muñoz & Mehmet Serdar Kilinc & Harriet B. Nembhard & Conrad Tucker & Xuemei Huang, 2017. "Evaluating the cost-effectiveness of an early detection of Parkinson's disease through innovative technology," The Engineering Economist, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 62(2), pages 180-196, April.
    5. Natalia Turdyeva, 2020. "Effects of Terms of Trade Shocks on the Russian Economy," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 79(2), pages 43-69, June.
    6. Borger, Christine & Rutherford, Thomas F. & Won, Gregory Y., 2008. "Projecting long term medical spending growth," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 69-88, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Joseph Francois & Bernard Hoekman, 2010. "Services Trade and Policy," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(3), pages 642-692, September.
    2. Hafner, Marco & Yerushalmi, Erez & Andersson, Fredrik L. & Burtea, Teodor, 2020. "Quantifying the macroeconomic cost of night-time bathroom visits: an application to the UK," CAFE Working Papers 5, Centre for Accountancy, Finance and Economics (CAFE), Birmingham City Business School, Birmingham City University.
    3. Kym Anderson, 2006. "Reducing Distortions to Agricultural Incentives: Progress, Pitfalls, and Prospects," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 88(5), pages 1135-1146.
    4. Klishchuk Bogdan & Zelenyuk Valentin, 2012. "Impact of Services LIberalization on Firm Level Productivity in Eastern Europe and Central Asia," EERC Working Paper Series 12/03e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
    5. Magnani, Natalia & Vaona, Andrea, 2013. "Regional spillover effects of renewable energy generation in Italy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 663-671.
    6. Lakatos, Csilla & Fukui, Tani, 2014. "The Liberalization of Retail Services in India," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 327-340.
    7. Bernard Hoekman & Aaditya Mattoo & André Sapir, 2007. "The political economy of services trade liberalization: a case for international regulatory cooperation?," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 23(3), pages 367-391, Autumn.
    8. Tarr, David, 2012. "Impact of services liberalization on industry productivity, exports and development : six empirical studies in the transition countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6023, The World Bank.
    9. Elisabeth M. Christen & Joseph Francois & Bernard Hoekman, 2012. "CGE Modeling of Market Access in Services," Economics working papers 2012-08, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    10. Gijs Wetering & Willem Woertman & Andre Verbeek & Mireille Broeders & Eddy Adang, 2013. "Quantifying short run cost-effectiveness during a gradual implementation process," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 14(6), pages 911-918, December.
    11. Sulamaa, Pekka & Widgrén, Mika, 2005. "Economic Effects of Free Trade between the EU and Russia," Discussion Papers 969, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    12. Latorre, Maria C., 2014. "CGE analysis of the impact of foreign direct investment and tariff reform on female and male wages," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7073, The World Bank.
    13. Will Martin & Kym Anderson, 2007. "The Doha agenda and agricultural trade reform: the role of economic analysis," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 37(s1), pages 77-87, December.
    14. Edward J. Balistreri & Zoryana Olekseyuk & David G. Tarr, 2017. "Privatisation and the unusual case of Belarusian accession to the WTO," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(12), pages 2564-2591, December.
    15. Latorre, María C. & Hosoe, Nobuhiro, 2013. "The role of Japanese multinationals' affiliates in China: A dynamic CGE analysis of FDI between Japan and China," Conference papers 332365, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    16. Konan, Denise Eby & Van Assche, Ari, 2007. "Regulation, market structure and service trade liberalization," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 895-923, November.
    17. JESPER JENSEN & Thomas F. Rutherford & David G. Tarr, 2014. "Modeling Services Liberalization: The Case of Tanzania," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: APPLIED TRADE POLICY MODELING IN 16 COUNTRIES Insights and Impacts from World Bank CGE Based Projects, chapter 9, pages 191-222, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    18. Edward J. Balistreri & Zoryana Olekseyuk & David G. Tarr, 2017. "Privatisation and the unusual case of Belarusian accession to the WTO," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(12), pages 2564-2591, December.
    19. Arjan Lejour & Hugo Rojas-Romagosa, 2006. "Foreign Direct Investment in Applied General Equilibrium Models: Overview of the Literature," CPB Memorandum 169, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    20. Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration authors collective, 2012. "The Consequences of Weak Competition: Quantitative Evaluation and Policy Implications (Think Tank Report)," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 6, pages 1-49.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    computable general equilibrium models; CGE with health block; simulations; macroeconomic modelling; Parkinson’s disease; early diagnostic; Russia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • H43 - Public Economics - - Publicly Provided Goods - - - Project Evaluation; Social Discount Rate
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:105182. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.