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Modeling determinant of COVID-19 mortality in Indonesia

Author

Listed:
  • Fajar, Muhammad
  • Magdhalena, Stephanie
  • Hartini, Sri
  • Nurfalah, Zelani

Abstract

This study aims to examine the determinants of mortality-related to COVID-19 in Indonesia. Generalized additive models (GAM) was used for modeling the relationship between COVID-19-related deaths and predictor variables. Information used in this study was sourced from Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS Statistics Indonesia), Ministry of Health, and the Indonesian COVID-19 Task Force. The results obtained from GAM are statistically valid. Out of the eight predicting variables used in the analysis, six were significant and two were non-significant at 95 percent confidence interval. The significant variables are GRDP per capita, the proportion of population aged 60 years and over, life expectancy at birth, number of hospitals, number of people with tuberculosis, and number of diabetics. The model can explain the variation of COVID-19-related deaths by 98.5 percent, while the remaining 1.5 percent is attributed to other factors lying outside the model. In summary, this study suggests increasing the number of health facilities, carrying out health development programs, implementing health protocols, and mobility restrictions with prioritizing populations of vulnerable age or those with comorbidities can reduce mortality-related to COVID-19.

Suggested Citation

  • Fajar, Muhammad & Magdhalena, Stephanie & Hartini, Sri & Nurfalah, Zelani, 2020. "Modeling determinant of COVID-19 mortality in Indonesia," MPRA Paper 105043, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 30 Sep 2020.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:105043
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Viktor Stojkoski & Zoran Utkovski & Petar Jolakoski & Dragan Tevdovski & Ljupco Kocarev, 2020. "Correlates of the country differences in the infection and mortality rates during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from Bayesian model averaging," Papers 2004.07947, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    GAM; Covid-19; Determinant; Modeling Mortality; Indonesia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Social Interaction Models
    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

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