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The macroeconomic effects of COVID-19 in Montenegro: a Bayesian VARX approach

Author

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  • Gordana Djurovic

    (University of Montenegro)

  • Vasilije Djurovic

    (University of Montenegro)

  • Martin M. Bojaj

    (University of Montenegro)

Abstract

This study examines, diagnoses, and assesses appropriate macroeconomic policy responses of the Montenegrin Government to the outbreak of COVID-19. The model econometrically measures the macroeconomic costs using a Bayesian VARX Litterman/Minessota prior to the pandemic disease in terms of demand and supply loss due to illness and closed activities and their effects on GDP growth in various pandemic scenarios. We explore five economic scenarios—shocks—using the available data from January 2006 to December 2019, following real out-of-sample forecasts generated from January 2020 to December 2020. Sensitivity scenarios spanning January 2020 to June 2020 from ± 10 to ± 60% were analyzed. We observed what happens to the supply and demand sides, namely, GDP, tourism, capital stock, human capital, health expenditures, economic freedom, and unemployment. The results show a toll on the GDP, tourism, unemployment, capital stock, and especially human capital for 2020. The recommended policy measures are public finance spending initiatives focused on securing employment and keeping highly qualified staff in Montenegrin companies. Considering all uncertainties, the rebound of the Montenegrin economy could take a few years to reach pre-COVID 19 output levels.

Suggested Citation

  • Gordana Djurovic & Vasilije Djurovic & Martin M. Bojaj, 2020. "The macroeconomic effects of COVID-19 in Montenegro: a Bayesian VARX approach," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 6(1), pages 1-16, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:fininn:v:6:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1186_s40854-020-00207-z
    DOI: 10.1186/s40854-020-00207-z
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    1. Milivoje Radović & Nemanja Popović & Jovan Đurašković & Milena Konatar & Marina Božović, 2023. "Analysis Of Key Indicators Of The Montenegrin Economy During The Covid-19 Crisis," Shaping Post-COVID World – Challenges for Economic Theory and Policy, in: Aleksandra Praščević & Miomir Jakšić & Mihail Arandarenko & Dejan Trifunović & Milutin Ješić (ed.),Shaping Post-COVID World – Challenges for Economic Theory and Policy, chapter 7, pages 135-156, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade.
    2. Dorra TURKI & Foued Badr GABSI, 2023. "Uncertainty and monetary policy during the Covid-19 pandemic in Tunisia: Evidence from a Bayesian VAR," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(1(634), S), pages 177-188, Spring.
    3. Osman Taylan & Abdulaziz S. Alkabaa & Mustafa Tahsin Yılmaz, 2022. "Impact of COVID-19 on G20 countries: analysis of economic recession using data mining approaches," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-30, December.
    4. Bojaj, Martin M. & Muhadinovic, Milica & Bracanovic, Andrej & Mihailovic, Andrej & Radulovic, Mladen & Jolicic, Ivan & Milosevic, Igor & Milacic, Veselin, 2022. "Forecasting macroeconomic effects of stablecoin adoption: A Bayesian approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    5. Gan-Ochir Doojav, 2023. "Macroeconomic Effects of Covid-19 in a Commodity-Exporting Economy: Evidence from Mongolia," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 59(5), pages 1323-1348, April.
    6. Xingyuan Yao, 2021. "COVID-19 Pandemic and economic stimulus policy inequality: evidence from quasi-natural experiments," Working Papers 585, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality.
    7. Calleja, Neville & Gualtieri, Andrea & Terzic, Natasa & Scoutellas, Vasos & Calleja-Agius, Jean, 2022. "Managing COVID-19 in four small countries: Initial response to the pandemic in San Marino, Montenegro, Malta and Cyprus," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(4), pages 281-286.
    8. Peng-Fei Dai & Xiong Xiong & Zhifeng Liu & Toan Luu Duc Huynh & Jianjun Sun, 2021. "Preventing crash in stock market: The role of economic policy uncertainty during COVID-19," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-15, December.
    9. Adriana AnaMaria Davidescu & Simona-Andreea Apostu & Aurel Marin, 2021. "Forecasting the Romanian Unemployment Rate in Time of Health Crisis—A Univariate vs. Multivariate Time Series Approach," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(21), pages 1-31, October.
    10. Wenmin Wu & Chien-Chiang Lee & Wenwu Xing & Shan-Ju Ho, 2021. "The impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on Chinese-listed tourism stocks," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-18, December.
    11. repec:beo:swcetp:23-07 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Syed Aun R. Rizvi & Ali Sakti, 2022. "Did green debt instruments aid diversification during the COVID-19 pandemic?," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-15, December.
    13. Dong-Shang Chang & Wei-De Wu, 2021. "Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Tourism Industry: Applying TRIZ and DEMATEL to Construct a Decision-Making Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-28, July.

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