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Comprehensive Financial Modeling of Solar PV Systems

Author

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  • Baschieri, Davide
  • Magni, Carlo Alberto
  • Marchioni, Andrea

Abstract

The adoption of a photovoltaic system has positive environmental effects, but the main driver of the choice in the industrial and commercial sector is economic profitability. Switching from acquisition of energy to production of energy is an investment with costs (e.g. leasing annual payment, O&M costs, capital expenditure) and benefits (e.g. savings in the electric bill, sale of the energy exceeding consumptions). In this work, we use an accounting-and-finance model to calculate the Equity Net Present Value in different scenarios and a sensitivity-analysis method (Finite Change Sensitivity Index) to explain the reasons for differences in results. This technique enables identifying the contribution of any input factor in the output value variation. In this way, the investor can draw attention on the most significant critical variables in the initial estimations to ensure success in forecasting.

Suggested Citation

  • Baschieri, Davide & Magni, Carlo Alberto & Marchioni, Andrea, 2020. "Comprehensive Financial Modeling of Solar PV Systems," MPRA Paper 103886, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:103886
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/103886/1/MPRA_paper_103886.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Carlo Alberto Magni, 2020. "Investment Decisions and the Logic of Valuation," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-030-27662-1, April.
    2. Carlo Alberto Magni, 2010. "Average Internal Rate of Return and investment decisions: A new perspective," Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) 0021, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".
    3. Carlo Alberto Magni & Stefano Malagoli & Andrea Marchioni & Giovanni Mastroleo, 2020. "Rating firms and sensitivity analysis," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 71(12), pages 1940-1958, December.
    4. Borgonovo, E., 2010. "Sensitivity analysis with finite changes: An application to modified EOQ models," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 200(1), pages 127-138, January.
    5. Magni, Carlo Alberto & Marchioni, Andrea, 2019. "The accounting-and-finance of a solar photovoltaic plant: Economic efficiency of a replacement project," MPRA Paper 95263, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Dong, Changgui & Sigrin, Benjamin & Brinkman, Gregory, 2017. "Forecasting residential solar photovoltaic deployment in California," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 251-265.
    7. Federica Cucchiella & Idiano D’Adamo & Massimo Gastaldi & Vincenzo Stornelli, 2018. "Solar Photovoltaic Panels Combined with Energy Storage in a Residential Building: An Economic Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-29, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Andrea Marchioni & Carlo Alberto Magni & Davide Baschieri, 2020. "Investment and Financing Perspectives for a Solar Photovoltaic Project," MIC 2020: The 20th Management International Conference,, University of Primorska Press.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    photovoltaic; economic analysis; financial modelling; financing; estimation; decision;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C60 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - General
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • C67 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Input-Output Models
    • G00 - Financial Economics - - General - - - General
    • G30 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - General
    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • G35 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Payout Policy
    • M41 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - Accounting
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products

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