IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/101074.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Consumer Expectations Survey and Quarterly Social Weather Survey: Evidence of Convergent Validity and Causality

Author

Listed:
  • Beja, Edsel Jr.

Abstract

The paper tests the convergent validity and causality of the Consumer Expectations Survey from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas and the Quarterly Social Weather Survey from the Social Weather Stations. The results indicate that there is convergent validity; and that there is bi-direction causality. Further results reveal that both share a common set of determinants. Overall, the findings imply that the Consumer Expectations Survey and the Quarterly Social Weather Survey embody comparable information. As such, one can be a proxy measure of the other. For policy, the findings support the view that a monetary approach for controlling the overall performance of the country, especially with regard to the inflation rate, in conjunction with a fiscal approach for securing the provision of basic social services are key to an effective management of sentiments and for an improvement in the quality of life.

Suggested Citation

  • Beja, Edsel Jr., 2019. "Consumer Expectations Survey and Quarterly Social Weather Survey: Evidence of Convergent Validity and Causality," MPRA Paper 101074, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:101074
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/101074/1/MPRA_paper_101074.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alkire, Sabina & Foster, James & Seth, Suman & Santos, Maria Emma & Roche, Jose Manuel & Ballon, Paola, 2015. "Multidimensional Poverty Measurement and Analysis," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199689491.
    2. repec:pri:cepsud:125krueger is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Sabina Alkire, James E. Foster, Suman Seth, Maria Emma Santos, Jose M. Roche and Paola Ballon, 2015. "Multidimensional Poverty Measurement and Analysis: Chapter 9 - Distribution and Dynamics," OPHI Working Papers ophiwp090_ch9.pdf, Queen Elizabeth House, University of Oxford.
    4. Sabina Alkire, James E. Foster, Suman Seth, Maria Emma Santos, José M. Roche and Paola Ballon, 2015. "Multidimensional Poverty Measurement and Analysis: Chapter 7 - Data and Analysis," OPHI Working Papers ophiwp088_ch7.pdf, Queen Elizabeth House, University of Oxford.
    5. Andrew E. Clark, 2018. "Four Decades of the Economics of Happiness: Where Next?," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 64(2), pages 245-269, June.
    6. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
    7. Edsel L. Beja Jr., 2017. "Subjective well-being approach for testing money illusion-evidence using data from Social Weather Stations," Philippine Review of Economics, University of the Philippines School of Economics and Philippine Economic Society, vol. 54(1), pages 47-62, June.
    8. Sabina Alkire & James E. Foster & Suman Seth & Maria Emma Santos & Jose M. Roche & Paola Ballon, 2015. "Multidimensional Poverty Measurement and Analysis: Chapter 2 - The Framework," OPHI Working Papers 83, Queen Elizabeth House, University of Oxford.
    9. Daniel Kahneman & Jack L. Knetsch & Richard H. Thaler, 1991. "Anomalies: The Endowment Effect, Loss Aversion, and Status Quo Bias," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 5(1), pages 193-206, Winter.
    10. Edsel L. Beja, 2016. "Measuring economic ill-being using objective and subjective indicators: evidence for the Philippines," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(2), pages 151-166, March.
    11. Edsel L Beja, 2018. "Migrant-family background and subjective well-being: Evidence using Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition," Migration Letters, Migration Letters, vol. 15(3), pages 398-408, July.
    12. Mapa, Dennis S. & Castillo, Kristelle & Francisco, Krizia, 2015. "Rice Price, Job Misery, Hunger Incidence: Need to Track Few More Statistical Indicators for the Poor," MPRA Paper 61990, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Edsel L. Beja, 2017. "The Asymmetric Effects of Macroeconomic Performance on Happiness: Evidence for the EU," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 52(3), pages 184-190, May.
    14. Daniel Kahneman & Alan B. Krueger & David Schkade & Norbert Schwarz & Arthur A. Stone, 2006. "Would You Be Happier If You Were Richer? A Focusing Illusion," Working Papers 77, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    15. Easterlin, Richard A., 1974. "Does Economic Growth Improve the Human Lot? Some Empirical Evidence," MPRA Paper 111773, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Sabina Alkire & James E. Foster & Suman Seth & Maria Emma Santos & Jose M. Roche & Paola Ballon, 2015. "Multidimensional Poverty Measurement and Analysis: Chapter 9 - Distribution and Dynamics," OPHI Working Papers 90, Queen Elizabeth House, University of Oxford.
    17. Edsel Beja, 2015. "The Focusing Illusion and Happiness: Evidence Using College Basketball Championship," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 121(3), pages 873-885, April.
    18. Barro, Robert J & Gordon, David B, 1983. "A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural Rate Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(4), pages 589-610, August.
    19. Edsel Beja, 2012. "Subjective Well-Being Approach to Environmental Valuation: Evidence for Greenhouse Gas Emissions," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 109(2), pages 243-266, November.
    20. Helliwell, John & Layard, Richard & Sachs, Jeffrey, 2012. "World happiness report," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 47487, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    21. Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky, 2013. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 6, pages 99-127, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    22. Daniel Kahneman & Robert Sugden, 2005. "Experienced Utility as a Standard of Policy Evaluation," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 32(1), pages 161-181, September.
    23. Mark Setterfield, 2009. "An index of macroeconomic performance," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(5), pages 625-649.
    24. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    25. Edsel Beja Jr., 2013. "Subjective Well-Being Approach to the Valuation of International Development: Evidence for the Millennium Development Goals," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 111(1), pages 141-159, March.
    26. Diwa C Guinigundo, 2016. "The role of expectations in inflation dynamics in the Philippines - has it changed following the global financial crisis?," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Inflation mechanisms, expectations and monetary policy, volume 89, pages 291-302, Bank for International Settlements.
    27. Matsusaka, John G & Sbordone, Argia M, 1995. "Consumer Confidence and Economic Fluctuations," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 33(2), pages 296-318, April.
    28. Alex Michalos, 1985. "Multiple discrepancies theory (MDT)," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 347-413, May.
    29. Sabina Alkire, James E. Foster, Suman Seth, Maria Emma Santos, José M. Roche and Paola Ballon, 2015. "Multidimensional Poverty Measurement and Analysis: Chapter 2 - The Framework," OPHI Working Papers ophiwp083_ch2.pdf, Queen Elizabeth House, University of Oxford.
    30. Sabina Alkire & James E. Foster & Suman Seth & Maria Emma Santos & Jose M. Roche & Paola Ballon, 2015. "Multidimensional Poverty Measurement and Analysis: Chapter 7 - Data and Analysis," OPHI Working Papers 88, Queen Elizabeth House, University of Oxford.
    31. Edsel Beja & David Yap, 2013. "Counting Happiness from the Individual Level to the Group Level," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 114(2), pages 621-637, November.
    32. Rafael Di Tella & Robert MacCulloch, 2006. "Some Uses of Happiness Data in Economics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-46, Winter.
    33. Daniel Kahneman & Alan B. Krueger & David Schkade & Norbert Schwarz & Arthur A. Stone, 2006. "Would You Be Happier If You Were Richer? A Focusing Illusion," Working Papers 77, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Beja, Edsel Jr., 2021. "Human Development Index and Multidimensional Poverty Index: Evidence on their Reliability and Validity," MPRA Paper 108501, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Matthys, Marie-Luise & Acharya, Sushant & Khatri, Sanjaya, 2021. "“Before cardamom, we used to face hardship”: Analyzing agricultural commercialization effects in Nepal through a local concept of the Good Life," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    2. Martyna Kobus & Olga Półchłopek & Gaston Yalonetzky, 2019. "Inequality and Welfare in Quality of Life Among OECD Countries: Non-parametric Treatment of Ordinal Data," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 143(1), pages 201-232, May.
    3. Beja, Edsel Jr., 2021. "Human Development Index and Multidimensional Poverty Index: Evidence on their Reliability and Validity," MPRA Paper 108501, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Abre-Rehmat Qurat-ul-Ann & Faisal Mehmood Mirza, 2021. "Multidimensional Energy Poverty in Pakistan: Empirical Evidence from Household Level Micro Data," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 155(1), pages 211-258, May.
    5. Londari Yamarak & Kevin A. Parton, 2023. "Impacts of mining projects in Papua New Guinea on livelihoods and poverty in indigenous mining communities," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 36(1), pages 13-27, January.
    6. Tavares, Fernando Flores & Betti, Gianni, 2021. "The pandemic of poverty, vulnerability, and COVID-19: Evidence from a fuzzy multidimensional analysis of deprivations in Brazil," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    7. Gaurav Datt, 2019. "Multidimensional poverty in the Philippines, 2004–2013: How much do choices for weighting, identification and aggregation matter?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(4), pages 1103-1128, October.
    8. Dutta, Indranil & Nogales, Ricardo & Yalonetzky, Gaston, 2021. "Endogenous weights and multidimensional poverty: A cautionary tale," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    9. M. Azhar Hussain & Nikolaj Siersbæk & Lars Peter Østerdal, 2020. "Multidimensional welfare comparisons of EU member states before, during, and after the financial crisis: a dominance approach," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 55(4), pages 645-686, December.
    10. Juan-Francisco Sánchez-García & María-del-Carmen Sánchez-Antón & Rosa Badillo-Amador & María-del-Carmen Marco-Gil & Juan-Vicente LLinares-Ciscar & Susana Álvarez-Díez, 2019. "A New Extension of Bourguignon and Chakravarty Index to Measure Educational Poverty and Its Application to the OECD Countries," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 145(2), pages 479-501, September.
    11. Julien Hanoteau, 2023. "Do foreign MNEs alleviate multidimensional poverty in developing countries?," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 13(4), pages 719-749, December.
    12. Andrea Brandolini & John Micklewright, 2020. "Tony Atkinson’s new book, Measuring Poverty Around the World. Some further reflections," Working Papers 518, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality.
    13. Hai‐Anh Dang & Dean Jolliffe & Calogero Carletto, 2019. "Data Gaps, Data Incomparability, And Data Imputation: A Review Of Poverty Measurement Methods For Data‐Scarce Environments," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(3), pages 757-797, July.
    14. Najam, Zaira, 2020. "The Sensitivity of Poverty Trends to Dimensionality and Distribution Sensitivity in Poverty Measures - District Level Analysis for Pakistan," MPRA Paper 102383, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Anicia Jaegler, 2022. "How to Measure Inclusion in Higher Education: An Inclusive Rating," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-11, July.
    16. Bénédicte Apouey & David Madden, 2023. "Health poverty," Chapters, in: Jacques Silber (ed.), Research Handbook on Measuring Poverty and Deprivation, chapter 19, pages 202-211, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    17. Cecilia Njoroge & Anja Smith & Marisa von Fintel, 2024. "Inequalities in Water Insecurity in Kenya: A Multidimensional Approach," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 175(1), pages 171-193, October.
    18. Christian P. Schneider, 2024. "Implementing the Resource Nexus approach: the contribution of internationalising German businesses," Sustainability Nexus Forum, Springer, vol. 32(1), pages 1-13, December.
    19. Sung-Geun Kim, 2023. "What can we talk about social cohesion in Korea? An item response theory approach," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 2409-2427, June.
    20. Morel Berendson, Ricardo & Girón, Liz, 2022. "The multidimensional impacts of the Conditional Cash Transfer program Juntos in Peru," MERIT Working Papers 2022-012, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Consumer Expectations Survey Quarterly Social Weather Survey Convergent validity Cointegration Causality Toda-Yamamoto procedure;

    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • I00 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - General - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:101074. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.