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Crowdfunding Success: Human Insights vs Algorithmic Textual Extraction

Author

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  • Caterina Giannetti
  • Maria Saveria Mavillonio

Abstract

Using a unique dataset of equity offerings from crowdfunding platforms, we explore the synergy between human insights and algorithmic analysis in evaluating campaign success through business plan assessments. Human evaluators (students) used a predefined grid to assess each proposal in a Business Plan competition. We then developed a classifier with advanced textual representations and compared prediction errors between human evaluators, a machine learning model, and their combination. Our goal is to identify the drivers of discrepancies in their evaluations. While AI models outperform humans in overall accuracy, human evaluations offer valuable insights, especially in areas requiring subtle judgment. Combining human and AI predictions leads to improved performance, highlighting the complementary strengths of human intuition and AI's computational power.

Suggested Citation

  • Caterina Giannetti & Maria Saveria Mavillonio, 2024. "Crowdfunding Success: Human Insights vs Algorithmic Textual Extraction," Discussion Papers 2024/315, Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.
  • Handle: RePEc:pie:dsedps:2024/315
    Note: ISSN 2039-1854
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    File URL: https://www.ec.unipi.it/documents/Ricerca/papers/2024-315.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David McKenzie, 2017. "Identifying and Spurring High-Growth Entrepreneurship: Experimental Evidence from a Business Plan Competition," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(8), pages 2278-2307, August.
    2. N. Berger, Allen & F. Udell, Gregory, 1998. "The economics of small business finance: The roles of private equity and debt markets in the financial growth cycle," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(6-8), pages 613-673, August.
    3. Maria S. Mavillonio, 2024. "Textual Representation of Business Plans and Firm Success," Discussion Papers 2024/308, Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.
    4. Cao, Sean & Jiang, Wei & Wang, Junbo & Yang, Baozhong, 2024. "From Man vs. Machine to Man + Machine: The art and AI of stock analyses," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    5. Jermain C. Kaminski & Christian Hopp, 2020. "Predicting outcomes in crowdfunding campaigns with textual, visual, and linguistic signals," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 55(3), pages 627-649, October.
    6. David Clingingsmith & Will Drover & Scott Shane, 2023. "Examining the outcomes of entrepreneur pitch training: an exploratory field study," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 60(3), pages 947-974, March.
    7. McKenzie, David & Sansone, Dario, 2019. "Predicting entrepreneurial success is hard: Evidence from a business plan competition in Nigeria," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    8. Alex Kim & Maximilian Muhn & Valeri Nikolaev, 2024. "Financial Statement Analysis with Large Language Models," Papers 2407.17866, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2024.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Crowdfunding; Natural Language Processing; Human Evaluation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C45 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Neural Networks and Related Topics
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • G2 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services

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