IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pia/wpaper/105-2012.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Drivers of Household Over-Indebtedness and Delinquency on Mortgage Loans: Evidence from Italian Microdata

Author

Listed:
  • David ARISTEI
  • Manuela Gallo

Abstract

This paper investigates the main determinants of household delinquency on mortgage loans in Italy. Using a sample-selection ordered choice model, we assess the impact of socio-demographic factors, loan characteristics and institutional variables both on the probability of delinquency in mortgage repayments and on the amount of arrears. Our results, based on microdata from the Italian component of the EU-SILC survey, allow to identify which types of households are more financially vulnerable and show the relevance of institutional factors in affecting the conditional intensity of arrears. Based on the predicted probabilities of arrears, we further analyse the relationship between interest rates on mortgage loans and observed borrower riskiness. Results point out that, in the whole period of analysis, Italian banks have accounted for household credit risk and have used risk-based pricing strategies in the process of mortgage loans granting.

Suggested Citation

  • David ARISTEI & Manuela Gallo, 2012. "The Drivers of Household Over-Indebtedness and Delinquency on Mortgage Loans: Evidence from Italian Microdata," Quaderni del Dipartimento di Economia, Finanza e Statistica 105/2012, Università di Perugia, Dipartimento Economia.
    • Handle: RePEc:pia:wpaper:105/2012
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www2.ec.unipg.it/quaderni/qd_105_web.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Giuseppe De Luca & Valeria Perotti, 2011. "Estimation of ordered response models with sample selection," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 11(2), pages 213-239, June.
    2. David Aristei & Federico Perali & Luca Pieroni, 2008. "Cohort, age and time effects in alcohol consumption by Italian households: a double-hurdle approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 35(1), pages 29-61, August.
    3. Edelberg, Wendy, 2006. "Risk-based pricing of interest rates for consumer loans," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(8), pages 2283-2298, November.
    4. David Aristei & Luca Pieroni, 2008. "A double-hurdle approach to modelling tobacco consumption in Italy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(19), pages 2463-2476.
    5. Scott Fay & Erik Hurst & Michelle J. White, 2002. "The Household Bankruptcy Decision," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(3), pages 706-718, June.
    6. John Whitley & Richard Windram & Prudence Cox, 2004. "An empirical model of household arrears," Bank of England working papers 214, Bank of England.
    7. Silvia Magri, 2007. "Italian households’ debt: the participation to the debt market and the size of the loan," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 33(3), pages 401-426, November.
    8. Georgarakos, Dimitris & Lojschova, Adriana & Ward-Warmedinger, Melanie E., 2009. "Mortgage Indebtedness and Household Financial Distress," IZA Discussion Papers 4631, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    9. Gómez-Salvador, Ramón & Westermann, Thomas & Lojschová, Adriana, 2011. "Household sector borrowing in the euro area - a micro data perspective," Occasional Paper Series 125, European Central Bank.
    10. Harris, Mark N. & Zhao, Xueyan, 2007. "A zero-inflated ordered probit model, with an application to modelling tobacco consumption," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 1073-1099, December.
    11. Allen, Franklin & Santomero, Anthony M., 1997. "The theory of financial intermediation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(11-12), pages 1461-1485, December.
    12. Tullio Jappelli & Marco Pagano & Marco Di Maggio, 2013. "Households' indebtedness and financial fragility," Journal of Financial Management, Markets and Institutions, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 1, pages 23-46, January.
    13. Fabbri, Daniela & Padula, Mario, 2004. "Does poor legal enforcement make households credit-constrained?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(10), pages 2369-2397, October.
    14. Jappelli, Tullio & Pagano, Marco & Bianco, Magda, 2005. "Courts and Banks: Effects of Judicial Enforcement on Credit Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(2), pages 223-244, April.
    15. Jappelli, Tullio & Pagano, Marco, 2002. "Information sharing, lending and defaults: Cross-country evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(10), pages 2017-2045, October.
    16. Madden, David, 2008. "Sample selection versus two-part models revisited: The case of female smoking and drinking," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 300-307, March.
    17. Heckman, James, 2013. "Sample selection bias as a specification error," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 31(3), pages 129-137.
    18. Scholtens, Bert & van Wensveen, Dick, 2000. "A critique on the theory of financial intermediation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(8), pages 1243-1251, August.
    19. Vuong, Quang H, 1989. "Likelihood Ratio Tests for Model Selection and Non-nested Hypotheses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 307-333, March.
    20. Cragg, John G, 1971. "Some Statistical Models for Limited Dependent Variables with Application to the Demand for Durable Goods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 39(5), pages 829-844, September.
    21. Orla May & Merxe Tudela, 2005. "When is mortgage indebtedness a financial burden to British households? A dynamic probit approach," Bank of England working papers 277, Bank of England.
    22. Ramon Gomez-Salvador & Adriana Lojschova & Thomas Westermann, 2011. "Household Sector Borrowing in the Euro Area: A Micro Data Persective," BCL working papers 58, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    23. Boheim, Rene & Taylor, Mark P., 2000. "My Home Was My Castle: Evictions and Repossessions in Britain," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 287-319, December.
    24. Magri, Silvia & Pico, Raffaella, 2011. "The rise of risk-based pricing of mortgage interest rates in Italy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 1277-1290, May.
    25. Duca, John V & Rosenthal, Stuart S, 1994. "Do Mortgage Rates Vary Based on Household Default Characteristics? Evidence on Rate Sorting and Credit Rationing," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 99-113, March.
    26. Greene,William H. & Hensher,David A., 2010. "Modeling Ordered Choices," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521194204, November.
    27. Georgarakos, Dimitris & Fürth, Sven, 2015. "Household repayment behavior: The role of social capital and institutional, political, and religious beliefs," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 249-265.
    28. Jones, Andrew M, 1989. "A Double-Hurdle Model of Cigarette Consumption," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(1), pages 23-39, Jan.-Mar..
    29. Diaz-Serrano, Luis, 2005. "Income volatility and residential mortgage delinquency across the EU," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 153-177, September.
    30. Ian Domowitz & Robert L. Sartain, 1999. "Determinants of the Consumer Bankruptcy Decision," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(1), pages 403-420, February.
    31. Burcu Duygan-Bump & Charles Grant, 2009. "Household debt repayment behaviour: what role do institutions play? [‘Welfare implications of the Bankruptcy Reform Act of 1999’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 24(57), pages 108-140.
    32. P G Moffatt, 2005. "Hurdle models of loan default," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 56(9), pages 1063-1071, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Stanga, Irina & Vlahu, Razvan & de Haan, Jakob, 2020. "Mortgage arrears, regulation and institutions: Cross-country evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    2. Philip Du Caju & François Rycx & Ilan Tojerow, 2015. "Unemployment Risk and Over-indebtedness A Micro-econometric Perspective," Working Papers CEB 15-046, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    3. Petra Gerlach & Seán Lyons, 2015. "Mortgage arrears in Europe: The impact of monetary and macroprudential policies," Working Papers 2015-05, Swiss National Bank.
    4. Du Caju, Philip & Rycx, François & Tojerow, Ilan, 2016. "Unemployment risk and over-indebtedness," Working Paper Series 1908, European Central Bank.
    5. Stanga, Irina & Vlahu, Razvan & de Haan, Jakob, 2020. "Mortgage arrears, regulation and institutions: Cross-country evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mocetti, Sauro & Viviano, Eliana, 2017. "Looking behind mortgage delinquencies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 53-63.
    2. Lenarčič, Črt, 2022. "Drivers of household arrears: an euro area country panel data analysis," MPRA Paper 114558, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Hazarika, Bhabesh & Bezbaruah, Madhurjya Prashad & Goswami, Kishor, 2016. "Adoption of modern weaving technology in the handloom micro-enterprises in Assam: A Double Hurdle approach," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 344-356.
    4. Yaldız Hanedar, Elmas & Broccardo, Eleonora & Bazzana, Flavio, 2014. "Collateral requirements of SMEs: The evidence from less-developed countries," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 106-121.
    5. Egemen İPEK, 2019. "An Empirical Study on Alcohol Participation and Consumption Decision in Turkey," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 27(41).
    6. Olympia Bover & Jose Maria Casado & Sonia Costa & Philip Du Caju & Yvonne McCarthy & Eva Sierminska & Panagiota Tzamourani & Ernesto Villanueva & Tibor Zavadil, 2016. "The Distribution of Debt across Euro-Area Countries: The Role of Individual Characteristics, Institutions, and Credit Conditions," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 12(2), pages 71-128, June.
    7. Grant, Charles & Padula, Mario, 2013. "Using bounds to investigate household debt repayment behaviour," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(4), pages 336-354.
    8. Elmas Yaldiz Hanedar & Eleonora Broccardo & Flavio Bazzana, 2012. "Collateral Requirements of SMEs:The Evidence from Less–Developed Countries," Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) 0034, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".
    9. David Aristei & Luca Pieroni, 2008. "A double-hurdle approach to modelling tobacco consumption in Italy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(19), pages 2463-2476.
    10. Liverpool-Tasie, Lenis Saweda O., 2014. "Farmer groups and input access: When membership is not enough," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 37-49.
    11. David Aristei & Luca Pieroni, 2009. "Addiction, social interactions and gender differences in cigarette consumption," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 36(3), pages 245-272, August.
    12. Charles Yuji Horioka & Shizuka Sekita, 2011. "The Degree of Judicial Enforcement and Credit Markets: Evidence from Japanese Household Panel Data," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 11(2), pages 245-268, June.
    13. Barbara Cavalletti & Corrado Lagazio & Elena Lagomarsino & Daniela Vandone, 2020. "Consumer Debt and Financial Fragility: Evidence from Italy," Journal of Consumer Policy, Springer, vol. 43(4), pages 747-765, December.
    14. David Aristei & Federico Perali & Luca Pieroni, 2008. "Cohort, age and time effects in alcohol consumption by Italian households: a double-hurdle approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 35(1), pages 29-61, August.
    15. Burcu Duygan-Bump & Charles Grant, 2008. "Household debt repayment behaviour: what role do institutions play?," Supervisory Research and Analysis Working Papers QAU08-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    16. Reneé van Eyden, 2012. "Consumer demand for alcoholic beverages and tobacco in Lesotho: A double-hurdle approach," Working Papers 315, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    17. Piotr Bialowolski & Dorota Weziak-Bialowolska, 2014. "The Index of Household Financial Condition, Combining Subjective and Objective Indicators: An Appraisal of Italian Households," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 118(1), pages 365-385, August.
    18. Sirchenko Andrei, 2012. "A model for ordinal responses with an application to policy interest rate," EERC Working Paper Series 12/13e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
    19. Merike Kukk, 2014. "Distinguishing the components of household financial wealth: the impact of liabilities on assets in Euro Area countries," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2014-2, Bank of Estonia, revised 10 Oct 2014.
    20. Aller, Carlos & González Chapela, Jorge, 2013. "Misclassification of the dependent variable in a debt–repayment behavior context," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 162-172.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Mortgage delinquency; Household over-indebtedness; Ordered choice models; Risk-based pricing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pia:wpaper:105/2012. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ubaldo Pizzoli (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deperit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.