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A regional framework for analysing the Western Australian economy

Author

Listed:
  • Alan S Duncan

    (Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (BCEC), Curtin University)

  • Ken Leong

    (Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre, Curtin Business School)

Abstract

Western Australia is a diverse state with unique regions. Studies on the economy that adopt a ‘one size fits all’ approach’ are likely to be hindered by a lack of the richness and variability inherent in the intra-state regions. This paper proposes a modelling framework for the Western Australian macroeconomy by utilising existing and constructed data on its ten regions. As an export-oriented state, WA is affected by external factors such as the exchange rate, commodity prices and developments in emerging economies. However, with different composition of domestic- versus external-facing industrial sectors, each region is expected to respond differently to such shocks. Initial projections suggest WA’s growth is likely to decrease from its present 5.1 per cent to between 5-7 per cent through 2013-2014. When hit with an adverse shock to commodity prices initiated by, for example, a structural change in the Chinese economy, the mining-intensive region of Pilbara suffers by a factor of 3 percentage points in the near term over less exposed regions such as Great Southern and Peel.

Suggested Citation

  • Alan S Duncan & Ken Leong, 2014. "A regional framework for analysing the Western Australian economy," Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre Working Paper series WP1405, Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (BCEC), Curtin Business School.
  • Handle: RePEc:ozl:bcecwp:wp1405
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Allen Kelley & Robert Schmidt, 2005. "Evolution of recent economic-demographic modeling: A synthesis," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 18(2), pages 275-300, June.
    2. Tim Robinson & Hao Wang, 2013. "Changes to the RBA Index of Commodity Prices: 2013," RBA Bulletin (Print copy discontinued), Reserve Bank of Australia, pages 23-28, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Western Australian economy; gross regional product; regional analysis; industrial composition; forecasting; simulation.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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