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Why U.S. Money does not Cause U.S. Output, but does Cause Hong Kong Output

Author

Listed:
  • Gabriel Rodriguez

    (Department of Economics, University of Ottawa)

  • Nicholas Rowe

    (Carleton University)

Abstract

Standard econometric tests for whether money causes output will be meaningless if monetary policy is chosen optimally to smooth fluctuations in output. If U.S. monetary policy were chosen to smooth U.S. output, we show that U.S. money will not Granger cause U.S. output. Indeed, as shown by Rowe and Yetman (2000), if there is a (say) 6 quarter lag in the e¤ect of money on output, then U.S. output will be unforecastable from any information set available to the Fed lagged 6 quarters. But if other countries, for example Hong Kong, have currencies that are fixed to the U.S. dollar, Hong Kong monetary policy will then be chosen in Washington D.C., with no concern for smoothing Hong Kong output. Econometric causality tests of U.S. money on Hong Kong output will then show evidence of causality. We test this empirically. Our empirical analysis also provides a measure of the degree to which macroeconomic stabilisation is sacrificed by adopting a fixed exchange rate rather than an independent monetary policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Gabriel Rodriguez & Nicholas Rowe, 2002. "Why U.S. Money does not Cause U.S. Output, but does Cause Hong Kong Output," Working Papers 0201E, University of Ottawa, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ott:wpaper:0201e
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Blog mentions

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    Cited by:

    1. JOHANSSON, Anders C., 2009. "Is U.S. money causing China's output?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 732-741, December.
    2. Ellis B. Heath & Seth J. Kopchak, 2015. "The Response of the Mexican Equity Market to US Monetary Surprises," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 14(2), pages 87-111, August.
    3. Hendrickson, Joshua R., 2014. "Redundancy Or Mismeasurement? A Reappraisal Of Money," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(7), pages 1437-1465, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary Policy; Causality; VECM; U.S. Money; U.S. Federal Funds Rate.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

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