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Assessing the Impact of the ASEAN Economic Community

Author

Listed:
  • Hiro Lee

    (Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University)

  • Michael G. Plummer

    (OECD and Johns Hopkins University, SAIS-Bologna)

Abstract

Consequences of the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) are investigated using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. Quantitative assessments of the effects on economic welfare, trade flows and sectoral output are offered. When the removal of trade barriers are combined with reductions in administrative and technical barriers and lowering the trade and transport margins under the assumption of endogenously determined productivity, the estimated welfare gains for the year 2015 range from 1.1% in Indonesia to 9.4% in Thailand. The results suggest that streamlining customs procedures and other reductions in administrative and technical barriers, as well as increased competition and improvements in infrastructure, are significant in enlarging the benefits of the AEC.

Suggested Citation

  • Hiro Lee & Michael G. Plummer, 2011. "Assessing the Impact of the ASEAN Economic Community," OSIPP Discussion Paper 11E002, Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University.
    • Handle: RePEc:osp:wpaper:11e002
    as

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    File URL: http://www.osipp.osaka-u.ac.jp/archives/DP/2011/DP2011E002.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jaime de Melo & Sherman Robinson, 2015. "Productivity and externalities: models of export-led growth," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Modeling Developing Countries' Policies in General Equilibrium, chapter 3, pages 43-70, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Löfgren, Hans & Harris, Rebecca Lee & Robinson, Sherman, 2001. "A standard computable general equilibrium (CGE) model in GAMS," TMD discussion papers 75, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Itakura, Ken, 2014. "Impact of liberalization and improved connectivity and facilitation in ASEAN," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 2-11.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    ASEAN; AEC; CGE model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation

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