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The Role of Capital Accumulation, Adjustment and Structural Change for Economic Take-Off: Empirical Evidence from African Growth Episodes

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  • Jean-Claude Berthélemy
  • Ludvig Söderling

Abstract

In this study, we analyse extended periods of growth in Africa based on panel estimations from 27 African countries during the 1960-1996 period. Only a dozen of such rapid growth episodes are observable in Africa since 1960, and several of them eventually came to an end. We use all existing information on macroeconomic performance in Africa in a comparative manner, in order to assess the sustainability of current growth episodes. Our main conclusion is that sustainable growth needs to be based on a balanced mix of capital accumulation, macroeconomic adjustment and structural change. In addition to more commonly used determinants of Total Factor Productivity, we construct a measure for the effect of labour reallocation as well as an index of economic diversification and estimate the impact of the latter on long-term growth. We also build an analysis of investment behaviour, which is influenced by Total Factor Productivity gains, while influencing economic growth directly through ... Dans ce document, nous analysons des périodes de croissance prolongées en Afrique sur la base d’estimations en données de panel pour 27 pays sur la période 1960-1996. Il n’y a eu qu’une douzaine de tels épisodes de croissance « rapide » en Afrique depuis 1960 et beaucoup d’entre eux se sont soldés par des échecs. Nous utilisons à titre comparatif l’ensemble des informations disponibles sur les performances macroéconomiques en Afrique, afin d’évaluer le caractère soutenable des épisodes de croissance en cours. Notre principale conclusion est que pour être soutenable, la croissance doit reposer sur une combinaison équilibrée d’accumulation du capital, d’ajustement macroéconomique et de changement structurel. En complément des déterminants usuels de la productivité globale des facteurs, nous construisons un indicateur de l’effet de la réallocation du travail ainsi qu’un indicateur de diversification économique, dont nous testons l’impact sur la croissance à long terme. Nous proposons ...

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  • Jean-Claude Berthélemy & Ludvig Söderling, 1999. "The Role of Capital Accumulation, Adjustment and Structural Change for Economic Take-Off: Empirical Evidence from African Growth Episodes," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 150, OECD Publishing.
    • Handle: RePEc:oec:devaaa:150-en
    DOI: 10.1787/518867170562
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    2. World Bank, 2007. "Uganda - Moving Beyond Recovery : Investment and Behavior Change, For Growth, Volume 1. Summary and Recommendations," World Bank Publications - Reports 7576, The World Bank Group.
    3. RavinderRena, 2008. "Sectoral Performance in the African Economy – Some Issues and Trends," Indus Journal of Management & Social Science (IJMSS), Department of Business Administration, vol. 2(1), pages 1-14, June.
    4. Shafaeddin, Mehdi, 2006. "Does trade openness helps or hinders industrialization?," MPRA Paper 4371, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Chris Papageorgiou & Winford H. Masanjala, 2006. "Initial Conditions, European Colonialism and Africa's Growth," Departmental Working Papers 2006-01, Department of Economics, Louisiana State University.
    6. Jean-Claude Berthelémy & Sophie Chauvin, 2000. "Structural Changes in Asia and Growth Prospects After the Crisis," Working Papers 2000-09, CEPII research center.
    7. World Bank, 2007. "Uganda - Moving Beyond Recovery, Investment and Behavior Change, For Growth, Volume 2, Overview," World Bank Publications - Reports 7574, The World Bank Group.
    8. Oleg Badunenko & Daniel Henderson & Romain Houssa, 2014. "Significant drivers of growth in Africa," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 339-354, December.
    9. Rena, Ravinder, 2007. "Sectoral Performance In The African Economy – Some Issues And Trends," MPRA Paper 11089, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2007.
    10. Romain Houssa & Oleg Badunenko & Daniel J. Henderson, 2010. "Explaining African Growth Performance: A Production-Frontier Approach," Working Papers 1013, University of Namur, Department of Economics.
    11. Matthew McCartney, 2011. "Pakistan, Growth, Dependency, and Crisis," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 16(Special E), pages 71-94, September.
    12. Ben Hammouda, Hakim & Karingi, Stephen & Njuguna, Angelica & Sadni Jallab, Mustapha, 2006. "Diversification: towards a new paradigm for Africa’s development," MPRA Paper 13359, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Mr. Ludvig Söderling, 2002. "Escaping the Curse of Oil? The Case of Gabon," IMF Working Papers 2002/093, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Carmignani, Fabrizio & Mandeville, Thomas, 2014. "Never been industrialized: A tale of African structural change," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 124-137.
    15. World Bank, 2008. "Guinea : Development Policy Review," World Bank Publications - Reports 7871, The World Bank Group.
    16. Bernhard G. Gunter, 2001. "Does the HIPC Initiative Achieve its Goal of Debt Sustainability?," WIDER Working Paper Series DP2001-100, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    17. Benno J. Ndulu, 2006. "Ramping Up African Growth: Lessons From Five Decades Of Growth Experience," Economic Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(4), pages 5-11, December.
    18. Koopman, Eline & Wacker, Konstantin M., 2023. "Drivers of growth accelerations: What role for capital accumulation?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    19. Nizar, Muhammad Afdi, 2015. "Pola Diversifikasi Ekspor Produk Industri Manufaktur Indonesia [Diversification Patterns of Exports of Indonesian Manufacturing Industry Products]," MPRA Paper 98503, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Justin Yifu Lin, 2013. "From Flying Geese to Leading Dragons: New Opportunities and Strategies for Structural Transformation in Developing Countries," International Economic Association Series, in: Joseph E. Stiglitz & Justin Lin Yifu & Ebrahim Patel (ed.), The Industrial Policy Revolution II, chapter 1, pages 50-70, Palgrave Macmillan.
    21. Slotmaekers, Veerle & de Souza, Lúcio Vinhas, 2005. "Effects of the EU-Mexico Free Trade Agreement," Conference papers 331345, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    22. Chen, Shiyi & Jefferson, Gary H. & Zhang, Jun, 2011. "Structural change, productivity growth and industrial transformation in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 133-150, March.
    23. Amimo, Oliveira & Larson, Donald W. & Bittencourt, Maurício Vaz Lobo & Graham, Douglas H., 2003. "The Potential For Financial Savings In Rural Mozambican Households," 2003 Annual Meeting, August 16-22, 2003, Durban, South Africa 25921, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    24. Wang, Fei & Dong, Baomin & Yin, Xiaopeng & An, Chi, 2014. "China's structural change: A new SDA model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 256-266.
    25. Laura N. Beny & Lisa D. Cook, 2009. "Metals or Management? Explaining Africa's Recent Economic Growth Performance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 268-274, May.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • O55 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Africa

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