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Has the effect of monetary policy changedduring 1990s?: An Application of Identified Markov Switching Vector Autoregression to the Impulse Response Analysis When the Nominal Interest Rate is Almost Zero

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  • Ippei Fujiwara

    (Research and Statistics Department, Bank of Japan, and Osaka University)

Abstract

I study whether the effect of monetary policy has changed during 1990s and the zero bound of nominal interest rate may have some distortional effect on macroeconomic dynamics. In order to check the existence of structural change without any prior knowledge on break point and to be able to compare the effect of monetary policy before and after the break without any distortion from the difference in degrees of freedom caused by the different estimated periods, the identi ed Markov switching vector autoregression model is estimated. The result shows that there is a structural change in 1990s and the effect of monetary policy has become weaker since then. As obvious, traditional interest rate channel is not functioning and therefore the role of monetary expansion is limited now. Another intriguing by-product is that the conventional puzzles with identi ed VAR, namely price puzzle and liquidity puzzle, are often re- solved in one regime, but not in the whole sample. This nding may have some implication for the cause of those puzzles, the coexistence of equi- librium dynamics and disequilibrium dynamics in economic time series.

Suggested Citation

  • Ippei Fujiwara, 2003. "Has the effect of monetary policy changedduring 1990s?: An Application of Identified Markov Switching Vector Autoregression to the Impulse Response Analysis When the Nominal Interest Rate is Almost Ze," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 03-08, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:osk:wpaper:03-08
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    Cited by:

    1. Fujiwara Ippei, 2004. "Output Composition of the Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism in Japan," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 1-23, September.
    2. Fujiwara, Ippei, 2007. "Is there a direct effect of money?: Money's role in an estimated monetary business cycle model of the Japanese economy," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 329-337, August.
    3. Nobuo Inaba & Takashi Kozu & Toshitaka Sekine & Takashi Nagahata, 2005. "Non-performing loans and the real economy: Japan’s experience," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Investigating the relationship between the financial and real economy, volume 22, pages 106-27, Bank for International Settlements.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Markov Switching Model; VAR; Monetary Policy; Price Puzzle; Liquidity Puzzle; Bootstrapping; Zero Bound of Nominal Interest Rate;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General

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