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Estimating the Long Term Future of Religion with a Mathematical Model

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  • GANIO-MEGO, Joe

Abstract

History and archaeology show that humans' importance to divination went from zero to maximum from the paleolithic period to the neolithic period. With the development of writing, divination transformed itself into religion as a set of shared divination behaviours. After the Neolithic period, the importance of religion started to decline, and in current conditions, the importance of religion can be considered a reduced proportion to the tithe amount. A good mathematical proxy of humanity's importance to religion can be found based on the technology level. Indeed, the factors doubt, knowledge, the complexity of doubt and complexity of knowledge play a significant role in humanity's importance to religion and are all connected to the technology level. By creating a mathematical formula based on the technology level, the importance that humanity gives to divination can be approximated. That formula shows that the importance of religion will go to zero within a century. Religion will be phased out and never come back. The reward function that humans have felt by executing rules based on structured divination, i.e. religion, will go to zero.

Suggested Citation

  • GANIO-MEGO, Joe, 2022. "Estimating the Long Term Future of Religion with a Mathematical Model," SocArXiv zw3ky, Center for Open Science.
  • Handle: RePEc:osf:socarx:zw3ky
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/zw3ky
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jutta Bolt & Jan Luiten Zanden, 2014. "The Maddison Project: collaborative research on historical national accounts," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 67(3), pages 627-651, August.
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