Megatrends in Africa: Implications for food in urban high-density areas with special focus on Nairobi and Cape Town

The world is and has been continuously changing and adjusting. Some changes are positive, some are negative. It is important to be aware of emerging changes in order to mitigate negative effects and amplify positive effects. Some of the major current trends are: urbanization, migration, climate change, population growth, biodiversity loss as well as the emergence of pandemics such as COVID 19. All of these trends affect food systems in several ways. A clear understanding of the implications is critical when considering how food systems can be strengthened and made more resilient to withstand the impacts of these trends. Climate change is threatening all aspects of food security. Low- and middle-income countries are projected to be affected to the largest extent. Yield reduction and price increases further increase the incentives to expand production into forest and grasslands which would in turn accelerate climate change. Urban food supply chains will have to adjust to shifting regional supplies and increasingly erratic volumes. Heat and water stress will further amplify the negative human health effects especially in densely populated areas. Biodiversity could be a crucial contributor to improved food system outcomes, yet it is continuously degraded. Many valuable plant species are already threatened and population growth, urbanization, climate change and current market forces increase the pressures on habitats for biodiversity. Direct threats also emerge from current food production systems that contribute to degradation through heavy use of chemical pesticides and fertilizer. Current food systems are already failing to deliver for the poor, contribute to environmental degradation, and fail to withstand disruptions such as the effects of COVID 19. Around 66% of Africans already face food insecurity. The population is projected to double by 2060 and food supply will need to change, diversify and increase drastically in order to overcome the current and emerging challenges. Here, the supply to urban residents will be most critical as urban populations will triple by 2050 and already by 2030, half of the population will reside in cities. With the majority of the population increase likely being absorbed by informal settlements, these areas will require attention to ensure they are made more resilient, to buffer the worst impacts. Food system trends towards more processed, and less nutritious foods are already negatively impacting different segments of populations with the coexistence of multiple forms of malnutrition, and increasing diet associated with non-communicable diseases. Therefore, alternative systems will have to be developed in order to avoid increasing health problems. While focusing on solving or mitigating the acute problems, we need to ensure a clear vision towards a more resilient, sustainable and equitable (food) future that is able to address the needs of all segments of society. The reports of EAT Lancet, the HLPE, the Global Panel on Agriculture and Food Systems for Nutrition and UNICEF are recent examples that highlight the needs and pathways towards this goal. Yet, there remain critical knowledge gaps for action that need to be addressed. Food choice motives are highly complex and interact with other needs and strategies. These are often context specific and generalization remains difficult, with limited evidence in low-and middle-income countries Hence a clear understanding of local contexts, and socio-cultural dynamics remains crucial for understanding, and devising suitable interventions that will respond to consumer needs and behaviour, for better food, nutrition and well-being outcomes. Furthermore, the food system itself and its mechanics have yet to be fully explored when it comes to interventions, particularly the parts which connect rural-producers and urban- consumers, and supporting and enabling food environment. While at the abstract and aggregate level there have been significant advances, the implications for local interventions have to be explored in more detail to avoid negative consequences or spillovers. Overall, clarity on intervention logic, design and monitoring will have to be ensured in order to truly advance the functioning of the food system for all and especially for vulnerable people that are currently ill served.