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The Election Day that Lasted 84 Days: Mapping the Electoral Geography of the 2019 Istanbul Metropolitan Mayoral Race

Author

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  • Gülhan, Sinan Tankut

    (Gaziantep University)

Abstract

The Istanbul metropolitan mayoral election in 2019 provided a suitable way to study the subtle and apparent shifts in the Turkish political landscape. For the first time in recent history, opposition gained ground in this main commercial and population hub. So far, Istanbul local politics were treated from an aspatial perspective. Here, we employ spatial econometrics to understand the subtle groundswell in Istanbul’s political geography. This paper maps the electoral change that took place in the 84 days between two elections using 31 thousand ballot data based on 782 districts in Istanbul. In addition to the change in voting patterns we also employ two different datasets to better situate the change of public opinion. The first database is the socioeconomic status indexing of Istanbul’s districts. The second database comes from the author’s own work employing python-based datamining the online database of for sale properties in Istanbul on the verge of the 2019 election. An OLS regression analysis and a spatial-lag regression is applied on the datasets. The results are contrary to the political punditry and points to a newly emerging middle-class coalition.

Suggested Citation

  • Gülhan, Sinan Tankut, 2022. "The Election Day that Lasted 84 Days: Mapping the Electoral Geography of the 2019 Istanbul Metropolitan Mayoral Race," SocArXiv ufvtz, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:socarx:ufvtz
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/ufvtz
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Guangqing Chi & Jun Zhu, 2008. "Spatial Regression Models for Demographic Analysis," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 27(1), pages 17-42, February.
    2. Vilalta y Perdomo, Carlos, 2004. "The local context and the spatial diffusion of multiparty competition in urban Mexico (1994-2000)," EGAP Working Papers 2004-03, Tecnológico de Monterrey, Campus Ciudad de México.
    3. Caglar Keyder, 2005. "Globalization and Social Exclusion in Istanbul," International Journal of Urban and Regional Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(1), pages 124-134, March.
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