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The Very Temporary Effect of Covid-19 on English Fertility

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  • Ermisch, John

Abstract

This note reports estimates of the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on English fertility. It uses monthly data on the General Fertility Rate (GFR) over the period 2011-2021 to estimate dynamic models of the GFR, some of which include measures of men’s and women's unemployment rates. The models are used to generate monthly counterfactual fertility during 2020-21 from which the impact of the pandemic is inferred. The Covid pandemic had a very short-term depressing impact on fertility. It reduced conceptions sharply during the first wave of the pandemic (April 2020), affecting fertility in January 2021, but this was fully compensated for by a higher fertility during the last 10 months of 2021. It also appears that changes in unemployment rates played little role in these pandemic-related fertility movements.

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  • Ermisch, John, 2022. "The Very Temporary Effect of Covid-19 on English Fertility," SocArXiv ufdhk, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:socarx:ufdhk
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/ufdhk
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mocan, Naci H, 1990. "Business Cycles and Fertility Dynamics in the United States: A Vector Autoregressive Model," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 3(2), pages 125-146, August.
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    5. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
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