IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/osf/socarx/ufdhk.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Very Temporary Effect of Covid-19 on English Fertility

Author

Listed:
  • Ermisch, John

Abstract

This note reports estimates of the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on English fertility. It uses monthly data on the General Fertility Rate (GFR) over the period 2011-2021 to estimate dynamic models of the GFR, some of which include measures of men’s and women's unemployment rates. The models are used to generate monthly counterfactual fertility during 2020-21 from which the impact of the pandemic is inferred. The Covid pandemic had a very short-term depressing impact on fertility. It reduced conceptions sharply during the first wave of the pandemic (April 2020), affecting fertility in January 2021, but this was fully compensated for by a higher fertility during the last 10 months of 2021. It also appears that changes in unemployment rates played little role in these pandemic-related fertility movements.

Suggested Citation

  • Ermisch, John, 2022. "The Very Temporary Effect of Covid-19 on English Fertility," SocArXiv ufdhk, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:socarx:ufdhk
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/ufdhk
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://osf.io/download/62ce9270f66a9417e92301f0/
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.31219/osf.io/ufdhk?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mocan, Naci H, 1990. "Business Cycles and Fertility Dynamics in the United States: A Vector Autoregressive Model," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 3(2), pages 125-146, August.
    2. Deniz D. Karaman Örsal & Joshua R. Goldstein, 2018. "The changing relationship between unemployment and total fertility," Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 72(1), pages 109-121, January.
    3. John Ermisch, 1988. "Economic Influences On Birth Rates," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 126(1), pages 71-92, November.
    4. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
    5. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Levent, Korap, 2007. "Modeling purchasing power parity using co-integration: evidence from Turkey," MPRA Paper 19584, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Lego, Brian & Gebremedhin, Tesfa & Cushing, Brian, 2000. "A Multi-Sector Export Base Model of Long-Run Regional Employment Growth," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 29(2), pages 192-197, October.
    3. Valérie Mignon & Christophe Hurlin, 2007. "Une synthèse des tests de cointégration sur données de panel," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 180(4), pages 241-265.
    4. Brittle, Shane, 2009. "Ricardian Equivalence and the Efficacy of Fiscal Policy in Australia," Economics Working Papers wp09-10, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
    5. Caner Demir, 2019. "Macroeconomic Determinants of Stock Market Fluctuations: The Case of BIST-100," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-14, February.
    6. Pär Österholm, 2005. "The Taylor Rule: A Spurious Regression?," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(3), pages 217-247, July.
    7. Levent KORAP, 2008. "Exchange Rate Determination Of Tl/Us$:A Co-Integration Approach," Istanbul University Econometrics and Statistics e-Journal, Department of Econometrics, Faculty of Economics, Istanbul University, vol. 7(1), pages 24-50, May.
    8. David F. Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 2016. "Improving the teaching of econometrics," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 1170096-117, December.
    9. Geweke, J. & Joel Horowitz & Pesaran, M.H., 2006. "Econometrics: A Bird’s Eye View," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0655, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    10. Sassi, Maria & Mamo, Yonas Abera, 2019. "Vertical price transmission in the white teff market in Ethiopia," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 58(2), March.
    11. David Greasley & Les Oxley, 2010. "Cliometrics And Time Series Econometrics: Some Theory And Applications," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(5), pages 970-1042, December.
    12. Ali Darrat & Fatima Al-Shamsi, 2005. "On the path of integration in the Gulf region," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(9), pages 1055-1062.
    13. Darko, Christian Kwasi, 2015. "Determinants of Economic Growth in Ghana," EconStor Preprints 123098, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    14. Nyondo, Christone R.J & Davidova, Sophia M. & Bailey, Alastair, 2013. "On Market Liberalisation and Efficiency: A Structural VECM Analysis of Dry Beans Markets in Malawi," 87th Annual Conference, April 8-10, 2013, Warwick University, Coventry, UK 158696, Agricultural Economics Society.
    15. André van Stel & Roy Thurik & Chantal Hartog & Simon Parker, 2010. "The two-way relationship between entrepreneurship and economic performance," Scales Research Reports H200822, EIM Business and Policy Research.
    16. Bardsen, Gunnar & Eitrheim, Oyvind & Jansen, Eilev S. & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2005. "The Econometrics of Macroeconomic Modelling," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199246502.
    17. Esther Stroe-Kunold & Joachim Werner, 2009. "A drunk and her dog: a spurious relation? Cointegration tests as instruments to detect spurious correlations between integrated time series," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 43(6), pages 913-940, November.
    18. David F. Hendry & Katarina Juselius, 2001. "Explaining Cointegration Analysis: Part II," The Energy Journal, , vol. 22(1), pages 75-120, January.
    19. Levent, Korap, 2008. "Modeling Turkish M2 broad money demand: a portfolio-based approach using implications for monetary policy," MPRA Paper 19703, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Levent, Korap, 2006. "Seigniorage revenue and Turkish economy," MPRA Paper 20106, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:osf:socarx:ufdhk. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: OSF (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://arabixiv.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.