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Blowing in the wind? The effect of weather on the intensity and spatial distribution of crime

Author

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  • Hart, Rannveig
  • Pedersen, Willy
  • Skardhamar, Torbjørn

    (University of Oslo)

Abstract

Despite an extensive literature on weather and crime, the magnitude of weather effects on crime and their implications for practical policing remain unclear. Similarly, the effects of weather on the location of crime have barely been explored empirically. We investigated how weather influences the intensity and spatial distribution of crime in Oslo, the capital of Norway. Geocoded locations of criminal offences were combined with data on temperature, wind, and rain. We used negative binomial count models to assess the effect of weather on the intensity of crime and generalized additive models (GAMs) to test for spatial variations. The intensity and spatial distribution of crime were not very sensitive to weather in Oslo. The largest effect was for drug crimes, for which maximum relative to minimum temperature was related to a single incident increase every six days. No effects were found for dislocation in the spatial models. In Oslo, Norway, weather conditions are of little importance for practical policing. The effects of weather on the intensity of crime are miniscule, and effects on the location of crime even smaller.

Suggested Citation

  • Hart, Rannveig & Pedersen, Willy & Skardhamar, Torbjørn, 2019. "Blowing in the wind? The effect of weather on the intensity and spatial distribution of crime," SocArXiv qrhn4, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:socarx:qrhn4
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/qrhn4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Brian Jacob & Lars Lefgren & Enrico Moretti, 2007. "The Dynamics of Criminal Behavior: Evidence from Weather Shocks," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 42(3).
    2. Dana E Goin & Kara E Rudolph & Jennifer Ahern, 2017. "Impact of drought on crime in California: A synthetic control approach," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(10), pages 1-15, October.
    3. Zeileis, Achim, 2006. "Object-oriented Computation of Sandwich Estimators," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 16(i09).
    4. Jonathan Corcoran & Gary Higgs & David Rohde & Prem Chhetri, 2011. "Investigating the association between weather conditions, calendar events and socio-economic patterns with trends in fire incidence: an Australian case study," Journal of Geographical Systems, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 193-226, June.
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    2. Vanessa Azevedo & Mariana Magalhães & Daniela Paulo & Rui Leandro Maia & Gisela M. Oliveira & Maria Simas Guerreiro & Ana Isabel Sani & Laura M. Nunes, 2021. "Temporal Variability of Theft Types in the Historic Centre of Porto," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-12, October.

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