Blowing in the wind? The effect of weather on the intensity and spatial distribution of crime

Despite an extensive literature on weather and crime, the magnitude of weather effects on crime and their implications for practical policing remain unclear. Similarly, the effects of weather on the location of crime have barely been explored empirically. We investigated how weather influences the intensity and spatial distribution of crime in Oslo, the capital of Norway. Geocoded locations of criminal offences were combined with data on temperature, wind, and rain. We used negative binomial count models to assess the effect of weather on the intensity of crime and generalized additive models (GAMs) to test for spatial variations. The intensity and spatial distribution of crime were not very sensitive to weather in Oslo. The largest effect was for drug crimes, for which maximum relative to minimum temperature was related to a single incident increase every six days. No effects were found for dislocation in the spatial models. In Oslo, Norway, weather conditions are of little importance for practical policing. The effects of weather on the intensity of crime are miniscule, and effects on the location of crime even smaller.