To Move Home or Move On? Investigating the Impact of Recovery Aid on Migration Status as a Potential Tool for Disaster Risk Reduction in the Aftermath of Volcanic Eruptions in Merapi, Indonesia

Disasters are associated strongly with forced migration. Indeed, migration is a standard survival strategy for those facing disruptions of this kind. Such is the case with Mt. Merapi, Indonesia, where a series of eruptions occurred in 2010. Mechanisms related to forced migration in such scenarios are fairly well understood, yet it remains less clear what factors may influence return migration. Given local interest in facilitating resettlement out of hazardous areas as a means of risk reduction, we seek to better understand the extent to which recovery aid may create incentives for households to move on rather than move home. We draw upon data collected from a pilot study in the aftermath of the 2010 eruptions and use multinomial logistic regression models to explore the influence of various forms of aid on migration status. Of the various forms of aid considered, financial recovery aid provided to households was consistently associated with moving on. The combination of financial recovery aid with remittances resulted in an association with having moved on that was even stronger than just receiving financial recovery aid. Ultimately, analyses of "aid packages'" suggest that a combination of most, if not all, of the aid was relatively more effective in fostering resettlement, suggesting that while food and health recovery aid as well as remittances may not have been sufficient in and of themselves to increase resettlement, they may enhance the effect of financial recovery aid.