Inequality in employment trajectories and their socio-economic consequences during the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany

This paper evaluates the inequalities in employment trajectories during the first COVID-19 pandemic lockdown in Germany. We assess individual-level panel data collected weekly between 20 March and 25 June (N=2,297), which allows us to examine the risks of short-time work, furlough, and job loss, as well as changes between working on-site and from home. Using sequence analysis, we detect typical patterns of employment trajectories and analyse how these vary between socio-demographic groups. Finally, we relate the types of employment trajectories to changes in income, subjective job security (compared to values in January and February 2020), and COVID-19 infection risks. Our results show clear gradients in employment risks: low-wage workers were severely affected by furlough and job loss, while highly qualified employees were able to work from home. Furthermore, in contrast to previous crises, service sector and female employees were more affected by short-time work; however, its timing and duration differs compared to male workers in manufacturing. Income loss was pronounced among those who became unemployed and those continuously in short-term work, while everybody—including employees continuously working from home—experienced a significant reduction in subjective job security compared to employees whose employment hours or location have not changed. The infection risk was only increased for individuals who changed from furlough to working on-site.