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Agricultural productivity and fertility: Evidence from the oil palm boom in Indonesia

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  • Gehrke, Esther
  • Kubitza, Christoph

    (International Rice Research Institute)

Abstract

We analyze the link between agricultural productivity growth and fertility, using the oil palm boom in Indonesia as empirical setting. During the time period 1996 to 2016, we find consistently negative effects of the oil palm expansion on fertility. We explain this finding with rising farm profits, that led to consumption growth, the expansion of the non-agricultural sector, increasing returns to education and to higher school nrollment. Together these findings suggest that agricultural productivity growth can play an important role in accelerating the fertility transition, as long as the economic benefits are large enough to translate into local economic development.

Suggested Citation

  • Gehrke, Esther & Kubitza, Christoph, 2021. "Agricultural productivity and fertility: Evidence from the oil palm boom in Indonesia," OSF Preprints y8wa6, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:osfxxx:y8wa6
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/y8wa6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Esther Duflo, 2012. "Women Empowerment and Economic Development," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1051-1079, December.
    2. Hill Kulu, 2005. "Migration and Fertility: Competing Hypotheses Re-examined," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 21(1), pages 51-87, March.
    3. Paula Bustos & Bruno Caprettini & Jacopo Ponticelli, 2016. "Agricultural Productivity and Structural Transformation: Evidence from Brazil," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(6), pages 1320-1365, June.
    4. Daron Acemoglu, 2002. "Technical Change, Inequality, and the Labor Market," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 40(1), pages 7-72, March.
    5. Michael Euler & Stefan Schwarze & Hermanto Siregar & Matin Qaim, 2016. "Oil Palm Expansion among Smallholder Farmers in Sumatra, Indonesia," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(3), pages 658-676, September.
    6. Koczberski, Gina, 2007. "Loose Fruit Mamas: Creating Incentives for Smallholder Women in Oil Palm Production in Papua New Guinea," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 35(7), pages 1172-1185, July.
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