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Do Not Use the ICAT Hurricane Loss “Dataset”: An Opportunity for Course Correction in Climate Science

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  • Pielke, Roger Jr

Abstract

A fatally flawed time series of U.S. hurricane losses assembled by an insurance company almost a decade ago has found its way into analyses published in the peer-reviewed literature. The flawed time series is based on undocumented modifications to a research-quality dataset that I and my colleagues published almost two decades ago. The uncritical use of the time series has led to erroneous conclusions published in the peer-reviewed literature which then were repeated in important climate science assessments. This paper explains the origin of the flawed dataset and demonstrates its many biases. The errors are so obvious and consequential that papers published in the peer-reviewed literature that rely on the flawed dataset should be retracted. While mistakes happen in science, what matters more is what we in the community do when mistakes are discovered.

Suggested Citation

  • Pielke, Roger Jr, 2024. "Do Not Use the ICAT Hurricane Loss “Dataset”: An Opportunity for Course Correction in Climate Science," OSF Preprints x2dgy, Center for Open Science.
  • Handle: RePEc:osf:osfxxx:x2dgy
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/x2dgy
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kerry Emanuel, 2024. "Limitations of reanalyses for detecting tropical cyclone trends," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 14(2), pages 143-145, February.
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    3. Jessica Weinkle & Chris Landsea & Douglas Collins & Rade Musulin & Ryan P. Crompton & Philip J. Klotzbach & Roger Pielke, 2018. "Normalized hurricane damage in the continental United States 1900–2017," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 1(12), pages 808-813, December.
    4. Laurens M. Bouwer & W. J. Wouter Botzen, 2011. "How Sensitive Are Us Hurricane Damages To Climate? Comment On A Paper By W. D. Nordhaus," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 2(01), pages 1-7.
    5. Andrew B. Martinez, 2020. "Improving normalized hurricane damages," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 3(7), pages 517-518, July.
    6. Adam Smith & Richard Katz, 2013. "US billion-dollar weather and climate disasters: data sources, trends, accuracy and biases," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 67(2), pages 387-410, June.
    7. William D. Nordhaus, 2010. "The Economics Of Hurricanes And Implications Of Global Warming," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 1(01), pages 1-20.
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