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Last millennium hurricane activity linked to endogenous climate variability

Author

Listed:
  • Wenchang Yang

    (Princeton University)

  • Elizabeth Wallace

    (Old Dominion University)

  • Gabriel A. Vecchi

    (Princeton University
    Princeton University)

  • Jeffrey P. Donnelly

    (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution)

  • Julien Emile-Geay

    (University of Southern California)

  • Gregory J. Hakim

    (University of Washington)

  • Larry W. Horowitz

    (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, NOAA)

  • Richard M. Sullivan

    (Old Dominion University)

  • Robert Tardif

    (University of Washington)

  • Peter J. Hengstum

    (Texas A&M University
    Texas A&M University at Galveston)

  • Tyler S. Winkler

    (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
    Texas A&M University at Galveston)

Abstract

Despite increased Atlantic hurricane risk, projected trends in hurricane frequency in the warming climate are still highly uncertain, mainly due to short instrumental record that limits our understanding of hurricane activity and its relationship to climate. Here we extend the record to the last millennium using two independent estimates: a reconstruction from sedimentary paleohurricane records and a statistical model of hurricane activity using sea surface temperatures (SSTs). We find statistically significant agreement between the two estimates and the late 20th century hurricane frequency is within the range seen over the past millennium. Numerical simulations using a hurricane-permitting climate model suggest that hurricane activity was likely driven by endogenous climate variability and linked to anomalous SSTs of warm Atlantic and cold Pacific. Volcanic eruptions can induce peaks in hurricane activity, but such peaks would likely be too weak to be detected in the proxy record due to large endogenous variability.

Suggested Citation

  • Wenchang Yang & Elizabeth Wallace & Gabriel A. Vecchi & Jeffrey P. Donnelly & Julien Emile-Geay & Gregory J. Hakim & Larry W. Horowitz & Richard M. Sullivan & Robert Tardif & Peter J. Hengstum & Tyler, 2024. "Last millennium hurricane activity linked to endogenous climate variability," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:15:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-024-45112-6
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-45112-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gabriel A. Vecchi & Christopher Landsea & Wei Zhang & Gabriele Villarini & Thomas Knutson, 2021. "Changes in Atlantic major hurricane frequency since the late-19th century," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-9, December.
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