IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/osf/osfxxx/2m9fy.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Valuing the Future: Changing Time Horizons and Policy Preferences

Author

Listed:
  • Gazmararian, Alexander F.

Abstract

The short time horizons of citizens is a prominent explanation for why governments fail to tackle significant long-term public policy problems. Actual evidence of the influence of time horizons is mixed, complicated by the difficulty of determining how individuals' attitudes would differ if they were more concerned about the future. I approach this challenge by leveraging a personal experience that leads people to place more value on the future: parenthood. Using a matched difference-in-differences design with panel data, I compare new parents with otherwise similar individuals and find that parenthood increases support for addressing climate change by 4.3 percentage points. Falsification tests and two survey experiments suggest that longer time horizons explain part of this shift in support. Not only are scholars right to emphasize the role of individual time horizons, but changing valuations of the future offer a new way to understand how policy preferences evolve.

Suggested Citation

  • Gazmararian, Alexander F., 2024. "Valuing the Future: Changing Time Horizons and Policy Preferences," OSF Preprints 2m9fy, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:osfxxx:2m9fy
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/2m9fy
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://osf.io/download/66103d6b943bee22f1dfed66/
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.31219/osf.io/2m9fy?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Amanda Kennard, 2021. "My Brother’s Keeper: Other-regarding preferences and concern for global climate change," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 345-376, April.
    2. Guido W. Imbens & Michal Kolesár, 2016. "Robust Standard Errors in Small Samples: Some Practical Advice," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 98(4), pages 701-712, October.
    3. Görlitz, Katja & Tamm, Marcus, 2020. "Parenthood, risk attitudes and risky behavior," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    4. Matthew Blackwell & James Honaker & Gary King, 2017. "A Unified Approach to Measurement Error and Missing Data: Details and Extensions," Sociological Methods & Research, , vol. 46(3), pages 342-369, August.
    5. Michael Siegrist, 2021. "Trust and Risk Perception: A Critical Review of the Literature," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(3), pages 480-490, March.
    6. Armin Falk & Anke Becker & Thomas Dohmen & David Huffman & Uwe Sunde, 2023. "The Preference Survey Module: A Validated Instrument for Measuring Risk, Time, and Social Preferences," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(4), pages 1935-1950, April.
    7. Matthew Blackwell & James Honaker & Gary King, 2017. "A Unified Approach to Measurement Error and Missing Data: Overview and Applications," Sociological Methods & Research, , vol. 46(3), pages 303-341, August.
    8. Carlos Cinelli & Chad Hazlett, 2020. "Making sense of sensitivity: extending omitted variable bias," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 82(1), pages 39-67, February.
    9. Alexandra Filindra & Noah Kaplan, 2017. "Testing Theories of Gun Policy Preferences Among Blacks, Latinos, and Whites in America-super-," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 98(2), pages 413-428, June.
    10. Mutz, Diana C. & Kim, Eunji, 2017. "The Impact of In-group Favoritism on Trade Preferences," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 71(4), pages 827-850, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Matthew Blackwell & James Honaker & Gary King, 2017. "A Unified Approach to Measurement Error and Missing Data: Overview and Applications," Sociological Methods & Research, , vol. 46(3), pages 303-341, August.
    2. Meyer, Bruce D. & Mittag, Nikolas, 2019. "Combining Administrative and Survey Data to Improve Income Measurement," IZA Discussion Papers 12266, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Ton de Waal & Arnout van Delden & Sander Scholtus, 2020. "Multi‐source Statistics: Basic Situations and Methods," International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, vol. 88(1), pages 203-228, April.
    4. Joscha Legewie, 2018. "Living on the Edge: Neighborhood Boundaries and the Spatial Dynamics of Violent Crime," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 55(5), pages 1957-1977, October.
    5. Kuwayama, Yusuke & Olmstead, Sheila & Zheng, Jiameng, 2022. "A more comprehensive estimate of the value of water quality," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    6. Raghul Gandhi Venkatesan & Bagavandas Mappillairaju, 2024. "Early student dropout detection in Indian secondary education with special reference to selected districts in Tamil Nadu: a machine learning-based survival analysis approach," Journal of Computational Social Science, Springer, vol. 7(3), pages 2309-2331, December.
    7. Simon Grund & Oliver Lüdtke & Alexander Robitzsch, 2021. "On the Treatment of Missing Data in Background Questionnaires in Educational Large-Scale Assessments: An Evaluation of Different Procedures," Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics, , vol. 46(4), pages 430-465, August.
    8. Bruce D. Meyer & Nikolas Mittag & Derek Wu, 2024. "Race, Ethnicity, and Measurement Error," NBER Chapters, in: Race, Ethnicity, and Economic Statistics for the 21st Century, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Meyer, Bruce D. & Mittag, Nikolas & Wu, Derek, 2024. "Race, Ethnicity, and Measurement Error," IZA Discussion Papers 17349, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    10. Bruce D. Meyer & Nikolas Mittag, 2019. "Combining Administrative and Survey Data to Improve Income Measurement," NBER Working Papers 25738, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Edmund Malesky & Markus Taussig, 2019. "How Do Firms Feel About Participation by Their Peers in the Regulatory Design Process? An Online Survey Experiment Testing the Substantive Change and Spillover Mechanisms," Strategy Science, INFORMS, vol. 4(2), pages 129-150, June.
    12. Brander, Michael & Bernauer, Thomas & Huss, Matthias, 2021. "Improved on-farm storage reduces seasonal food insecurity of smallholder farmer households – Evidence from a randomized control trial in Tanzania," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    13. Rousselière, Damien & Bouchard, Marie J. & Rousselière, Samira, 2024. "How does the social economy contribute to social and environmental innovation? Evidence of direct and indirect effects from a European survey," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(5).
    14. S. Yang & J. K. Kim, 2016. "A note on multiple imputation for method of moments estimation," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 103(1), pages 244-251.
    15. Joseph T. Ripberger & Hank C. Jenkins‐Smith & Carol L. Silva & Jeffrey Czajkowski & Howard Kunreuther & Kevin M. Simmons, 2018. "Tornado Damage Mitigation: Homeowner Support for Enhanced Building Codes in Oklahoma," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(11), pages 2300-2317, November.
    16. repec:hal:journl:hal-04810500 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Marcus Groß, 2016. "Modeling body height in prehistory using a spatio-temporal Bayesian errors-in variables model," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 100(3), pages 289-311, July.
    18. Daniel Horn & Hubert Kiss Janos & Sára Khayouti, 2020. "Does trust associate with political regime?," CERS-IE WORKING PAPERS 2013, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
    19. Johannes Abeler & Armin Falk & Fabian Kosse, 2021. "Malleability of Preferences for Honesty," CESifo Working Paper Series 9033, CESifo.
    20. Goytom Abraha Kahsay & Daniel Osberghaus, 2018. "Storm Damage and Risk Preferences: Panel Evidence from Germany," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 71(1), pages 301-318, September.
    21. Uwe Sunde & Thomas Dohmen & Benjamin Enke & Armin Falkbriq & David Huffman & Gerrit Meyerheim, 2022. "Patience and Comparative Development," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 89(5), pages 2806-2840.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:osf:osfxxx:2m9fy. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: OSF (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://osf.io/preprints/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.