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Systematic Scenario Selection: Stress Testing and the Nature of Uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Mark D. Flood

    (Office of Financial Research)

  • George G. Korenko

    (Edgeworth Economics)

Abstract

We present a technique for selecting multidimensional shock scenarios for use in financial stress testing. The methodology systematically enforces internal consistency among the shock dimensions by sampling points of arbitrary severity from a plausible joint probability distribution. The approach involves a grid search of sparse, well distributed, stress-test scenarios, which we regard as a middle ground between traditional stress testing and reverse stress testing. Choosing scenarios in this way reduces the danger of "blind spots" in stress testing. We suggest extensions to address the issues of non-monotonic loss functions and univariate shocks. We provide tested and commented source code in MATLAB.

Suggested Citation

  • Mark D. Flood & George G. Korenko, 2013. "Systematic Scenario Selection: Stress Testing and the Nature of Uncertainty," Working Papers 13-02, Office of Financial Research, US Department of the Treasury.
    • Handle: RePEc:ofr:wpaper:13-02
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    File URL: https://www.financialresearch.gov/working-papers/files/OFRwp0005_FloodKorenko_SystematicScenarioSelection.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Acharya, Viral & Engle, Robert & Pierret, Diane, 2014. "Testing macroprudential stress tests: The risk of regulatory risk weights," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 36-53.
    2. Mr. Jorge A Chan-Lau, 2017. "Lasso Regressions and Forecasting Models in Applied Stress Testing," IMF Working Papers 2017/108, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Bookstaber, Rick & Cetina, Jill & Feldberg, Greg & Flood, Mark & Glasserman, Paul, 2013. "Stress tests to promote financial stability: Assessing progress and looking to the future," Journal of Risk Management in Financial Institutions, Henry Stewart Publications, vol. 7(1), pages 16-25, December.
    4. repec:ofr:wpaper:13-10 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. De Genaro, Alan, 2016. "Systematic multi-period stress scenarios with an application to CCP risk management," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 119-134.
    6. Pavel Kapinos & Oscar A. Mitnik, 2016. "A Top-down Approach to Stress-testing Banks," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 49(2), pages 229-264, June.

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