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Peak Travel, Peak Car and the Future of Mobility: Evidence, Unresolved Issues, and Policy Implications, and a Research Agenda

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  • Phil Goodwin

    (University College London)

Abstract

In many advanced economies, car use per head, and sometimes total car traffic, has shown low growth. In some countries (and especially cities) it has declined. In a few countries, there have been similar studies of the distance travelled by all modes added together, which has shown a similar trend though with some doubts about how international air travel should be handled. It is generally agreed that the trends in the last few years must be influenced by world economic problems, but some of the possible changes in trend seem to go back ten or twenty years, with signs detectable even longer…

Suggested Citation

  • Phil Goodwin, 2012. "Peak Travel, Peak Car and the Future of Mobility: Evidence, Unresolved Issues, and Policy Implications, and a Research Agenda," International Transport Forum Discussion Papers 2012/13, OECD Publishing.
    • Handle: RePEc:oec:itfaab:2012/13-en
    DOI: 10.1787/5k4c1s3l876d-en
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    Cited by:

    1. Tilley, Sara & Houston, Donald, 2016. "The gender turnaround: Young women now travelling more than young men," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 349-358.
    2. Prieto, Marc & Stan, Valentina & Baltas, George, 2022. "New insights in Peer-to-Peer carsharing and ridesharing participation intentions: Evidence from the “provider-user†perspective," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    3. Focas Caralampo & Panayotis Christidis, 2017. "What drives car use in Europe?," JRC Research Reports JRC105792, Joint Research Centre.
    4. Janice Morphet, 2017. "Rescaling the suburban: New directions in the relationship between governance and infrastructure," Local Economy, London South Bank University, vol. 32(8), pages 803-817, December.
    5. Lyons, Glenn & Jain, Juliet & Weir, Iain, 2016. "Changing times – A decade of empirical insight into the experience of rail passengers in Great Britain," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 94-104.
    6. Circella, Giovanni & Matson, Grant & Alemi, Farzad & Handy, Susan, 2019. "Panel Study of Emerging Transportation Technologies and Trends in California: Phase 2 Data Collection," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt35x894mg, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    7. Jean-Paul Hubert & Jean-Loup Madre & Pierre Pistre, 2016. "L’utilisation de l’automobile par les ménages dans les territoires peu denses : analyse croisée par les enquêtes sur la mobilité et le Recensement de la population," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 483(1), pages 179-203.
    8. Truffer, Bernhard & Schippl, Jens & Fleischer, Torsten, 2017. "Decentering technology in technology assessment: prospects for socio-technical transitions in electric mobility in Germany," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 34-48.
    9. Kent, Jennifer & Dowling, Robyn & Maalsen, Sophia, 2017. "Catalysts for transport transitions: Bridging the gap between disruptions and change," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 200-207.
    10. Lyons, Glenn & Davidson, Cody, 2016. "Guidance for transport planning and policymaking in the face of an uncertain future," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 104-116.
    11. Mounce, Richard & Nelson, John D., 2019. "On the potential for one-way electric vehicle car-sharing in future mobility systems," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 17-30.
    12. M. Yu. Ksenofontov & S. R. Milyakin, 2018. "The Automobilization Process and Its Determining Factors in the Past, Present, and Future," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 29(4), pages 406-414, July.
    13. Lucas, Karen & Bates, John & Moore, José & Carrasco, Juan Antonio, 2016. "Modelling the relationship between travel behaviours and social disadvantage," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 157-173.
    14. Hjorthol, Randi, 2016. "Decreasing popularity of the car? Changes in driving licence and access to a car among young adults over a 25-year period in Norway," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 140-146.
    15. Mattauch, Linus & Hepburn, Cameron, 2016. "Climate policy when preferences are endogenous – and sometimes they are," INET Oxford Working Papers 2016-04, Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford.
    16. Catherine Morency & Hubert Verreault & Marie Demers, 2015. "Identification of the minimum size of the shared-car fleet required to satisfy car-driving trips in Montreal," Transportation, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 435-447, May.

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