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Potential Output in the Seven Major OECD Countries

Author

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  • Raymond Torres

    (OECD)

  • John P. Martin

    (OECD)

Abstract

This paper outlines the concepts and methods used by the OECD Secretariat to derive estimates of potential output and capacity utilisation for the major seven countries. While there are many alternative definitions of potential output, the one which is currently being used by the OECD Secretariat refers to the level of output that is consistent over the medium-term with stable inflation. The paper also contrasts the OECD approach and estimates with those published recently by the IMF. Finally, it presents the results of some INTERLINK simulations designed to illustrate some of the possible effects of faster productivity and potential output growth on macroeconomic performance ... Cet article décrit les concepts et les méthodes utilisés par le Secrétariat de l'OCDE pour estimer le potentiel de production et le taux d'utilisation des capacités des sept grands pays de l'OCDE. Le potentiel de production estimé par le Secrétariat de l'OCDE est défini comme le niveau de production compatible à moyen terme avec une inflation stable, étant entendu qu'il existe beaucoup d'autres défintions possibles. En outre, l'article compare l'approche et les estimations de l'OCDE avec celles que le FMI a publiées récemment. Enfin, quelques effects possibles d'une plus forte croissance de le productivité et du potential de production sont illustrés au moyen de simulations du modèle INTERLINK ...

Suggested Citation

  • Raymond Torres & John P. Martin, 1989. "Potential Output in the Seven Major OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 66, OECD Publishing.
    • Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:66-en
    DOI: 10.1787/756608308425
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    Cited by:

    1. Carlo A. Favero & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2005. "Modelling and Forecasting Fiscal Variables for the Euro Area," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(s1), pages 755-783, December.
    2. Demertzis, Maria & Van Els, Peter & Grob, Sybille & Peeters, Marga, 2006. "EUROMON: The multi-country model of De Nederlandsche Bank," MPRA Paper 28512, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Leo Butler, 1996. "The Bank of Canada's New Quarterly Porjection Model Part 4 : A Semi- Structural Method to Estimate Potential Output : Combining Economic Theory with a Time-Series Filter," Technical Reports 77, Bank of Canada.
    4. Demertzis, Maria & Van Els, Peter & Peeters, H.M.M., 2002. "EUROMON: De Nederlandsche Bank's multi-country model," MPRA Paper 29634, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Sergey Sinelnikov-Murylev & Sergey Drobyshevsky & Maria Kazakova & Michael Alexeev, 2016. "Decomposition of Russia's GDP Growth Rates," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 167P, pages 123-123.
    6. Danielle Bourlange & Éric Chaney, 1990. "Taux d'utilisation des capacités de production : un reflet des fluctuations conjoncturelles," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 231(1), pages 49-70.
    7. Hahn, Franz & Ruenstler, Gerhard, 1996. "Potential Output, the Natural Rate of Unemployment, and the Phillips Curve in a Multivariate Structural Time Series Framework," Economics Series 33, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    8. Antonella Palumbo, 2008. "I metodi di stima del PIL potenziale tra fondamenti di Teoria economica e Contenuto empirico," Departmental Working Papers of Economics - University 'Roma Tre' 0092, Department of Economics - University Roma Tre.
    9. Slevin, Geraldine, 2001. "Potential Output and the Output Gap in Ireland," Research Technical Papers 5/RT/01, Central Bank of Ireland.
    10. Mr. Stabley W. Black, 2001. "Obtstacles to Faster Growth in Transition Economies: The Mongolian Case," IMF Working Papers 2001/037, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Paul Conway & Ben Hunt, 1997. "Estimating potential output: a semi-structural approach," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G97/9, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    12. Dainis Stikuts, 2003. "Measuring Output Gap in Latvia," Working Papers 2003/02, Latvijas Banka.

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