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Estimating New Zealand’s Output Gap Using a Small Macro Model

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Abstract

The Treasury has been testing the assumptions on the potential growth rate of the New Zealand economy. In this paper, we estimate a small macro model using Bayesian techniques, which allows us to assess the level of uncertainty of the estimates of the output gap. The model is based on the work of Benes et al. (2010) with some modifications reflecting New Zealand economic conditions. Although this new technique does not reduce the uncertainty in measures of potential output as indicated by large confidence bands for the estimates, it provides us a useful tool with an economic framework for measuring potential output.

Suggested Citation

  • Kam Leong Szeto, 2013. "Estimating New Zealand’s Output Gap Using a Small Macro Model," Treasury Working Paper Series 13/18, New Zealand Treasury.
    • Handle: RePEc:nzt:nztwps:13/18
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    File URL: https://treasury.govt.nz/sites/default/files/2013-07/twp13-18.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "The Aftermath of Financial Crises," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 466-472, May.
    2. Quah, Danny, 1992. "The Relative Importance of Permanent and Transitory Components: Identification and Some Theoretical Bounds," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(1), pages 107-118, January.
    3. L Christopher Plantier & Ozer Karagedikli, 2005. "Do so-called multivariate filters have better revision properties? An empirical analysis," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 250, Society for Computational Economics.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jamie Murray, 2013. "Parameter Uncertainty and the Fiscal Multiplier," Treasury Working Paper Series 13/19, New Zealand Treasury.
    2. Miles Workman, 2015. "Estimating the Cyclically- and Absorption-adjusted Fiscal Balance for New Zealand," Treasury Working Paper Series 15/09, New Zealand Treasury.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Potential output; Potential growth rate; Output gap; Unemployment; NAIRU; Inflation and Capacity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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