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Would Adopting the US Dollar Have Led to Improved Inflation, Output and Trade Balances for New Zealand in the 1990s?

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  • Viv Hall

    (Victoria University of Wellington)

  • Angela Huang

    (Reserve Bank of New Zealand)

Abstract

Deterministic simulations with the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's core FPS model show how New Zealand's broad macroeconomic environment might have evolved over the 1990s, if a US nominal yield curve and US TWI exchange rate movements under a common currency arrangement had been experienced. Relatively looser monetary conditions would have prevailed, and led to modest short-run output gains, greater excess demand pressures, noticeably higher CPI inflation rates over the whole of the 1990s, and less favourable trade balance outcomes, especially for the late 1990s. These macroeconomic outcomes are overall less favourable than those obtained from simulating the equivalent Australian monetary conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Viv Hall & Angela Huang, 2003. "Would Adopting the US Dollar Have Led to Improved Inflation, Output and Trade Balances for New Zealand in the 1990s?," Working Papers 03_14, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:mtu:wpaper:03_14
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Drew, Aaron & Hall, Viv B. & McDermott, C. John & Clair, Robert St., 2004. "Would adopting the Australian dollar provide superior monetary policy in New Zealand?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 949-964, December.
    2. Viv Hall & Kunhong Kim & Robert Buckle, 1998. "Pacific rim business cycle analysis: Synchronisation and volatility," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(2), pages 129-159.
    3. Kam Leong Szeto & Paul Gardiner & Richard Gray & David Hargreaves, 2003. "A Comparison of the NZTM and FPS Models of the New Zealand Economy," Treasury Working Paper Series 03/25, New Zealand Treasury.
    4. Hunt, Benjamin & Rose, David & Scott, Alasdair, 2000. "The core model of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's Forecasting and Policy System," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 247-274, April.
    5. Andrew Coleman, 2001. "Three Perspectives on an Australasian Monetary Union," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: David Gruen & John Simon (ed.),Future Directions for Monetary Policies in East Asia, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    6. A.M.G Coleman & Bob Buckle & A.Grimes, 1989. "Economic notes," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 52, june.
    7. Nils Bjorksten, 2001. "The current state of New Zealand monetary union research," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 64, December.
    8. David Hargreaves & C John McDermott, 1999. "Issues relating to optimal currency areas: theory and implications for New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 62, September.
    9. Andrew Coleman, 1999. "Economic Integration and Monetary Union," Treasury Working Paper Series 99/06, New Zealand Treasury.
    10. Sharon McCaw & C John McDermott, 2000. "How New Zealand adjusts to macroeconomic shocks: implications for joining a currency area," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 63, March.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Grimes, Arthur, 2005. "Regional and industry cycles in Australasia: Implications for a common currency," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 380-397, June.
    2. Viv Hall & John McDermott, 2008. "An Unobserved Components Common Cycle For Australia? Implications For A Common Currency," CAMA Working Papers 2008-11, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    3. Viv B. Hall & C. John McDermott, 2012. "Is there an unobserved components common cycle for Australasia? Implications for a common currency," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(2), pages 119-141, September.
    4. David C. Maré & Michelle Poland, 2005. "Defining Geographic Communities," Working Papers 05_09, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
    5. David C. Maré, 2005. "Indirect Effects of Active Labour Market Policies," Working Papers 05_01, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
    6. Arthur Grimes, 2006. "Intra & inter-regional industry shocks: A new metric with application to Australasian currency union," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(1), pages 23-44.
    7. Drew, Aaron & Hall, Viv B. & McDermott, C. John & Clair, Robert St., 2004. "Would adopting the Australian dollar provide superior monetary policy in New Zealand?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 949-964, December.
    8. Emma Xiaoqin Fan & Jesus Felipe, 2005. "The diverging patterns of profitability, investment and growth of China and India, 1980-2003," CAMA Working Papers 2005-22, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Common currency; monetary policy; deterministic simulation; New Zealand; Australia; United States;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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