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Inflation expectations curve: a tool for monitoring inflation expectations

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Abstract

Inflation expectations play an important role in monetary policy, where well-anchored expectations make it easier than otherwise to achieve the inflation target. This Note uses various surveyed measures of inflation expectations and yield curve modelling techniques to develop a framework for monitoring inflation expectations. From the resulting expectations curves, measures of the perceived inflation target focus and the expected time for inflation to return to target are estimated.

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  • Michelle Lewis, 2016. "Inflation expectations curve: a tool for monitoring inflation expectations," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Notes series AN2016/01, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    • Handle: RePEc:nzb:nzbans:2016/01
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    File URL: http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/-/media/ReserveBank/Files/Publications/Analytical%20notes/2016/an2016-01.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dean Ford & Elizabeth Kendall & Adam Richardson, 2015. "Evaluating monetary policy," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 78, pages 3-21, November.
    2. Aaron Mehrotra & James Yetman, 2018. "Decaying Expectations: What Inflation Forecasts Tell Us about the Anchoring of Inflation Expectations," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(5), pages 55-101, December.
    3. S. Boragan Aruoba, 2014. "Term Structures of Inflation Expectations and Real Interest Rates: The Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy," Staff Report 502, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    4. Michelle Lewis & C. John McDermott, 2016. "New Zealand's experience with changing its inflation target and the impact on inflation expectations," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(3), pages 343-361, September.
    5. Nelson, Charles R & Siegel, Andrew F, 1987. "Parsimonious Modeling of Yield Curves," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(4), pages 473-489, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Adam Richardson, 2016. "Behind the scenes of an OCR decision in New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 79, pages 1-15, July.
    2. Michelle Lewis & Dr John McDermott & Adam Richardson, 2016. "Inflation expectations and the conduct of monetary policy in New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 79, pages 1-12, March.
    3. Punnoose Jacob & Martin Wong, 2018. "Estimating the NAIRU and the Natural Rate of Unemployment for New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Notes series AN2018/04, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    4. Michelle Lewis & C. John McDermott, 2016. "New Zealand's experience with changing its inflation target and the impact on inflation expectations," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(3), pages 343-361, September.
    5. repec:nzb:nzbbul:jul2016:07 is not listed on IDEAS

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