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El Niño and its impact on the New Zealand economy

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The Southern Oscillation Index is 1.2 standard deviations below its mean, suggesting that strong El Niño conditions are present. This Note collects together information and empirical insights on El Niño. El Niño conditions do not by themselves condemn New Zealand’s agricultural sector to a poor season. Serious east coast drought and excessive rainfall in the west does not occur during every El Niño, and regional impacts can vary from one event to the next. Nonetheless, it is appropriate to closely monitor climatic conditions during El Niño, given the heightened risk. Indeed, empirical analysis suggests that an El Niño of the current intensity could subtract something in the order of 0.2 to 0.5 percent from New Zealand’s GDP.

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  • Dean Ford & Amy Wood, 2015. "El Niño and its impact on the New Zealand economy," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Notes series AN2015/07, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    • Handle: RePEc:nzb:nzbans:2015/07
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    1. Cashin, Paul & Mohaddes, Kamiar & Raissi, Mehdi, 2017. "Fair weather or foul? The macroeconomic effects of El Niño," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 37-54.
    2. Chris Bloor & Troy Matheson, 2010. "Analysing shock transmission in a data-rich environment: a large BVAR for New Zealand," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 39(2), pages 537-558, October.
    3. Güneş Kamber & Chris McDonald & Gael Price, 2013. "Drying out: Investigating the economic effects of drought in New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Notes series AN2013/02, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
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