IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nzb/nzbans/2015-07.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

El Niño and its impact on the New Zealand economy

Author

Listed:

Abstract

The Southern Oscillation Index is 1.2 standard deviations below its mean, suggesting that strong El Niño conditions are present. This Note collects together information and empirical insights on El Niño. El Niño conditions do not by themselves condemn New Zealand’s agricultural sector to a poor season. Serious east coast drought and excessive rainfall in the west does not occur during every El Niño, and regional impacts can vary from one event to the next. Nonetheless, it is appropriate to closely monitor climatic conditions during El Niño, given the heightened risk. Indeed, empirical analysis suggests that an El Niño of the current intensity could subtract something in the order of 0.2 to 0.5 percent from New Zealand’s GDP.

Suggested Citation

  • Dean Ford & Amy Wood, 2015. "El Niño and its impact on the New Zealand economy," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Notes series AN2015/07, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    • Handle: RePEc:nzb:nzbans:2015/07
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/-/media/ReserveBank/Files/Publications/Analytical%20notes/2015/an2015-07.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cashin, Paul & Mohaddes, Kamiar & Raissi, Mehdi, 2017. "Fair weather or foul? The macroeconomic effects of El Niño," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 37-54.
    2. Chris Bloor & Troy Matheson, 2010. "Analysing shock transmission in a data-rich environment: a large BVAR for New Zealand," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 39(2), pages 537-558, October.
    3. Güneş Kamber & Chris McDonald & Gael Price, 2013. "Drying out: Investigating the economic effects of drought in New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Notes series AN2013/02, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gallic, Ewen & Vermandel, Gauthier, 2020. "Weather shocks," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    2. Chaitat Jirophat & Pym Manopimoke & Suparit Suwanik, 2022. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Climate Shocks in Thailand," PIER Discussion Papers 188, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    3. Alain N. Kabundi & Mr. Montfort Mlachila & Jiaxiong Yao, 2022. "How Persistent are Climate-Related Price Shocks? Implications for Monetary Policy," IMF Working Papers 2022/207, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Joaquín Bernal-Ramírez & Jair Ojeda-Joya & Camila Agudelo-Rivera & Felipe Clavijo-Ramírez & Carolina Durana-Ángel & Clark Granger-Castaño & Daniel Osorio-Rodríguez & Daniel Parra-Amado & José Pulido &, 2022. "Impacto macroeconómico del cambio climático en Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, issue 102, pages 1-62, July.
    5. Wenju Cai & Yi Liu & Xiaopei Lin & Ziguang Li & Ying Zhang & David Newth, 2024. "Nonlinear country-heterogenous impact of the Indian Ocean Dipole on global economies," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, December.
    6. Mehmet Balcilar & Elie Bouri & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch, 2021. "El Niño, La Niña, and the Forecastability of the Realized Variance of Heating Oil Price Movements," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-23, July.
    7. Sheng, Yu & Xu, Xinpeng, 2019. "The productivity impact of climate change: Evidence from Australia's Millennium drought," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 182-191.
    8. Andrea Bastianin & Alessandro Lanza & Matteo Manera, 2018. "Economic impacts of El Niño southern oscillation: evidence from the Colombian coffee market," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 49(5), pages 623-633, September.
    9. Checo, Ariadne & Mejía, Mariam & Ramírez, Francisco A., 2017. "El rol de los regímenes de precipitaciones sobre la dinámica de precios y actividad del sector agropecuario de la República Dominicana durante el período 2000-2016 [The role of rainfall regimes on ," MPRA Paper 80301, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Gilles Dufrénot & William Ginn & Marc Pourroy, 2023. "ENSO Climate Patterns on Global Economic Conditions," AMSE Working Papers 2308, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    11. Davinson Stev Abril‐Salcedo & Luis Fernando Melo‐Velandia & Daniel Parra‐Amado, 2020. "Nonlinear relationship between the weather phenomenon El niño and Colombian food prices," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 64(4), pages 1059-1086, October.
    12. Zhang, Zhihao, 2023. "Are climate risks helpful for understanding inflation in BRICS countries?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PB).
    13. Arellano-Gonzalez, Jesus & Juarez-Torres, Miriam & Zazueta-Borboa, Francisco, 2021. "Temperature shocks and local price changes of agricultural products: panel data evidence from Mexico," 2021 Annual Meeting, August 1-3, Austin, Texas 314060, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    14. Kahn, Matthew E. & Mohaddes, Kamiar & Ng, Ryan N.C. & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Raissi, Mehdi & Yang, Jui-Chung, 2021. "Long-term macroeconomic effects of climate change: A cross-country analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    15. César Salazar & Andrés Acuña‐Duarte & José Maria Gil, 2023. "Drought shocks and price adjustments in local food markets in Chile: Do product quality and marketing channel matter?," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 54(3), pages 349-363, May.
    16. Miles Parker, 2018. "The Impact of Disasters on Inflation," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 21-48, April.
    17. Kouadio, Louis & Tixier, Philippe & Byrareddy, Vivekananda & Marcussen, Torben & Mushtaq, Shahbaz & Rapidel, Bruno & Stone, Roger, 2021. "Performance of a process-based model for predicting robusta coffee yield at the regional scale in Vietnam," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 443(C).
    18. Zhu, Xuehong & Zhang, Shishi & Ding, Qian, 2024. "Does extreme climate change drive the connectedness among global gold markets? Evidence from TVP-VAR and causality-in-quantiles techniques," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    19. Agustin L. Arcenas, 2018. "Determining the Inflationary Effects of El Niño and La Niña in the Philippines," UP School of Economics Discussion Papers 201802, University of the Philippines School of Economics.
    20. Baffes, John & Kabundi, Alain, 2023. "Commodity price shocks: Order within chaos?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nzb:nzbans:2015/07. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Reserve Bank of New Zealand Knowledge Centre (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/rbngvnz.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.