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Simultaneous elections, single-party sweeps, and correlation inequalities

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  • Pradeep Dubey
  • Siddhartha Sahi

Abstract

In a country with multiple elections it may be expedient to hold some or all of these on a common polling date. Our main result, Theorem C, is that under certain assumptions, an increase in the simultaneity of polling increases the likelihood that one party wins all the elections. We deduce this from an inequality, Theorem D, which generalizes the Harris correlation inequality from statistical mechanics.

Suggested Citation

  • Pradeep Dubey & Siddhartha Sahi, 2025. "Simultaneous elections, single-party sweeps, and correlation inequalities," Department of Economics Working Papers 25-01, Stony Brook University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:nys:sunysb:25-01
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    File URL: https://www.stonybrook.edu/commcms/economics/research/papers/2025/Election-D16.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pradeep Dubey & Siddhartha Sahi & Guanyang Wang, 2024. "Putting all eggs in one basket: some insights from a correlation inequality," Department of Economics Working Papers 24-02, Stony Brook University, Department of Economics.
    2. Pradeep Dubey & Siddhartha Sahi & Guanyang Wang, 2024. "Putting all eggs in one basket: some insights from a correlation inequality," Papers 2403.15957, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2024.
    3. Meredith, Marc, 2013. "Exploiting Friends-and-Neighbors to Estimate Coattail Effects," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 107(4), pages 742-765, November.
    4. Campbell, James E. & Sumners, Joe A., 1990. "Presidential Coattails in Senate Elections," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 84(2), pages 513-524, June.
    5. Fey, Mark, 1997. "Stability and Coordination in Duverger's Law: A Formal Model of Preelection Polls and Strategic Voting," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 91(1), pages 135-147, March.
    6. Calvert, Randall L. & Ferejohn, John A., 1983. "Coattail Voting in Recent Presidential Elections," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 77(2), pages 407-419, June.
    7. Kayser, Mark Andreas, 2005. "Who Surfs, Who Manipulates? The Determinants of Opportunistic Election Timing and Electorally Motivated Economic Intervention," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 99(1), pages 17-27, February.
    8. Dan S. Felsenthal & Moshé Machover, 2004. "A Priori Voting Power: What Is It All About?," Political Studies Review, Political Studies Association, vol. 2(1), pages 1-23, January.
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