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Did Central Banks Cause The Last Financial Crisis? Will They Cause The Next?

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  • Philip Turner

Abstract

Recent history suggests that raising interest rates higher than warranted by macroeconomic prospects would not be the right policy for financial stability. The significant tightening of monetary policies in the advanced economies from mid-2004 to mid-2006 failed to stop increased risk-taking in the financial system. The pre-GFC policy failure was not lax monetary policy but the failure of regulators to address (and markets to sanction) new risks created by innovation in international banks. Post-crisis monetary expansion, inadequate at first but ultimately taking many radical forms, ended a severe global recession. It did so without increasing aggregate debt/income ratios of the non-financial private sector in the advanced economies. But it has increased the interest rate sensitivity of the balanced sheets of financial intermediaries, an effect magnified by new regulations. Accounting rules and prudential regulations, which do not treat interest rate risk well, need to be re-examined. Current macroprudential policies largely fail to address the increased exposures to interest rate and liquidity risks faced by financial firms. The problem for monetary policy is that, given the scale of interest rate risk on the balance sheets of financial intermediaries, the macroeconomic effects of interest rate increases have become larger and much more uncertain.

Suggested Citation

  • Philip Turner, 2017. "Did Central Banks Cause The Last Financial Crisis? Will They Cause The Next?," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 484, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:nsr:niesrd:484
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    Cited by:

    1. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2018. "Monetary policy and macroprudential policy: Different and separate?," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 51(3), pages 802-827, August.
    2. Lars E.O. Svensson, 2019. "The Relation between Monetary Policy and Financial-Stability Policy," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Álvaro Aguirre & Markus Brunnermeier & Diego Saravia (ed.),Monetary Policy and Financial Stability: Transmission Mechanisms and Policy Implications, edition 1, volume 26, chapter 9, pages 283-310, Central Bank of Chile.
    3. Agnello, Luca & Castro, Vítor & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2022. "On the international co-movement of natural interest rates," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    4. Joseph E Gagnon & Philip Turner, 2019. "Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies for Sustained Growth in Asia," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 497, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    5. Lars E.O. Svensson, 2018. "La relación entre política monetaria y política de estabilización financiera," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 21(2), pages 082-106, August.
    6. Winkler Adalbert, 2018. "Zehn Jahre nach dem Konkurs von Lehman Brothers: Ordnungspolitische Irrtümer in der Bewertung der EZB-Geldpolitik seit der globalen Finanzkrise," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, De Gruyter, vol. 19(2), pages 141-162, July.
    7. Elsayed, Ahmed H. & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2022. "International monetary policy and cryptocurrency markets: dynamic and spillover effects," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 115305, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    8. Agnello, Luca & Castro, Vítor & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2020. "Global factors, uncertainty, weather conditions and energy prices: On the drivers of the duration of commodity price cycle phases," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    9. Luca Agnello & Vítor Castro & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2023. "Interest rate gaps in an uncertain global context: why “too” low (high) for “so” long?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(2), pages 539-565, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Term premia; central banks; unconventional monetary policies; interest rate policy; Taylor rule macroprudential policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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