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Investment behavior, observable expectations, and internal funds: a comment on Cummins et al. (AER, 2006)

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  • Robert E. Carpenter
  • Alessandra Guariglia

Abstract

Cummins et al. (2006) construct a new measure of fundamentals, and show that the positive cash flow effects typically found in investment-Q models disappear when traditional Q is replaced with their new measure. Their results are not robust to small changes in their specification or in the dataset used to estimate their model. The explanatory power of cash flow does not disappear when replacing traditional Q with their new measure of Q; it is never there to begin with. Investment’s lack of sensitivity to cash flow may be because their data is biased towards firms with positive cash flow (it is negative for only 242 observations of 11431). This bias and our results mute their argument that the positive cash-flow effects obtained in such models may reflect a failure to control properly for fundamentals rather than the presence of financial constraints.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert E. Carpenter & Alessandra Guariglia, 2007. "Investment behavior, observable expectations, and internal funds: a comment on Cummins et al. (AER, 2006)," Discussion Papers 07/11, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
    • Handle: RePEc:not:notcfc:07/11
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    File URL: https://www.nottingham.ac.uk/cfcm/documents/papers/07-11.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Coad, Alex, 2010. "Neoclassical vs evolutionary theories of financial constraints: Critique and prospectus," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 206-218, August.
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    3. Dirk Engel & Joel Stiebale, 2009. "Private Equity, Investment and Financial Constraints – Firm-Level Evidence for France and the United Kingdom," Ruhr Economic Papers 0126, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    4. Ljungqvist, Alexander & Asker, John & Farre-Mensa, Joan, 2010. "Does the Stock Market Harm Investment Incentives?," CEPR Discussion Papers 7857, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Carpenter, Robert E. & Guariglia, Alessandra, 2008. "Cash flow, investment, and investment opportunities: New tests using UK panel data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1894-1906, September.
    6. Laure Latruffe & Sophia Davidova & Elodie Douarin & Matthew Gorton, 2010. "Farm Expansion in Lithuania after Accession to the EU: The Role of CAP Payments in Alleviating Potential Credit Constraints," Europe-Asia Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 62(2), pages 351-365.
    7. Dirk Engel & Joel Stiebale, 2014. "Private equity, investment and financial constraints: firm-level evidence for France and the United Kingdom," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 43(1), pages 197-212, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Investment; Cash flow; Financial constraints.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • D9 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics

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