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Teen Births Keep American Crime High

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  • Jennifer Hunt

Abstract

The United States has a teenage birth rate that is high relative to that of other developed countries, and falling more slowly. Children of teenagers may experience difficult childhoods and hence be more likely to commit crimes subsequently. I assess to what extent lagged teen birth rates can explain why the United States had the highest developed country crime rates in the 1980s, and why US rates subsequently fell so much. For this purpose, I use internationally comparable crime rates measured from the 1989-2000 International Crime Victims Surveys. I find that an increase in the share of young people born to a teen mother increases the assault rate. The type of assault affected is perpetrated by unarmed lone assailants known to the victim by name, particularly at home or at work, and is not reported to the police. The pattern of teen births in the United States explains -30% of the relative fall in assaults by assailants known to the victim, but more than explains the 1980s gap with the rest of the world. I also present evidence on larceny and burglary.

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  • Jennifer Hunt, 2003. "Teen Births Keep American Crime High," NBER Working Papers 9632, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:9632
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    Cited by:

    1. Gordon Dahl, 2010. "Early teen marriage and future poverty," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 47(3), pages 689-718, August.
    2. Naveen Sunder, 2019. "Marriage Age, Social Status, and Intergenerational Effects in Uganda," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 56(6), pages 2123-2146, December.
    3. Alejandro Gaviria & Carlos Medina & Leonardo Morales & Jairo Núñez, 2010. "The Cost of Avoiding Crime: The Case of Bogotá," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of Crime: Lessons For and From Latin America, pages 101-132, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Alejandro Gaviria & Carlos Medina & Jorge Tamayo, 2010. "Assessing the Link between Adolescent Fertility and Urban Crime," Borradores de Economia 6860, Banco de la Republica.
    5. Murat G. Kırdar & Meltem Dayıoğlu & İsmet Koç, 2018. "The Effects of Compulsory-Schooling Laws on Teenage Marriage and Births in Turkey," Journal of Human Capital, University of Chicago Press, vol. 12(4), pages 640-668.
    6. Jorge Garcia-Hombrados & Berkay Özcan, 2024. "Age at marriage and marital stability: evidence from China," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 297-328, March.
    7. Peter Nilsson, 2008. "Does a pint a day affect your child's pay? The effect of prenatal alcohol exposure on adult outcomes," CeMMAP working papers CWP22/08, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    8. John J Donohue & Steven Levitt, 2020. "The Impact of Legalized Abortion on Crime over the Last Two Decades," American Law and Economics Review, American Law and Economics Association, vol. 22(2), pages 241-302.
    9. Meghir, Costas & Palme, Mårten & Schnabel, Marieke, 2011. "The Effect of Education Policy on Crime: An Intergenerational Perspective," Research Papers in Economics 2011:23, Stockholm University, Department of Economics.
    10. James J. Heckman, 2008. "Schools, Skills, And Synapses," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 46(3), pages 289-324, July.
    11. Carlos Medina & Jorge Andrés Tamayo & Christian Posso, 2013. "The Effect of Adult Criminals´ Spillovers On the Likelihood of Youths Becoming Criminals," Borradores de Economia 10461, Banco de la Republica.
    12. Sandra E. Black & Paul J. Devereux & Kjell G. Salvanes, 2008. "Staying in the Classroom and out of the maternity ward? The effect of compulsory schooling laws on teenage births," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(530), pages 1025-1054, July.
    13. Todd D. Kendall & Robert Tamura, 2010. "Unmarried Fertility, Crime, and Social Stigma," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 53(1), pages 185-221, February.
    14. Md. Thasinul Abedin & Rajarshi Mitra & Kanon Kumar Sen, 2022. "Does Refugee Inflow Increase Crime Rates in the United States?," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 164(3), pages 1379-1401, December.
    15. Black, Sandra E. & Devereux, Paul J. & Salvanes, Kjell G., 2004. "Fast Times at Ridgemont High? The Effect of Compulsory Schooling Laws on Teenage Births," IZA Discussion Papers 1416, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    16. Rebecca M. Blank & Kerwin Kofi Charles & James M. Sallee, 2007. "Do State Laws Affect the Age of Marriage? A Cautionary Tale About Avoidance Behavior," NBER Working Papers 13667, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Anna Sibilla Francesca DE PAOLI, 2010. "The effect of schooling on fertility, labor market participation and children’s outcomes, evidence from Ecuador," Departmental Working Papers 2010-30, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.
    18. Melissa S. Kearney & Phillip B. Levine, 2007. "Socioeconomic Disadvantage and Early Childbearing," NBER Chapters, in: The Problems of Disadvantaged Youth: An Economic Perspective, pages 181-209, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Jillian B. Carr & Analisa Packham, 2017. "The Effects of State‐Mandated Abstinence‐Based Sex Education on Teen Health Outcomes," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 403-420, April.

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    JEL classification:

    • J12 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Marriage; Marital Dissolution; Family Structure
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law

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