IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/6190.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Entry Decisions in the Generic Pharmaceutical Industry

Author

Listed:
  • Fiona M. Scott Morton

Abstract

In this paper I use data on all generic drug approvals granted from 1984- 1994 to examine whether heterogeneity among potential generic entrants can be used to predict which firms will choose to enter a particular market. The findings suggest that a firm's portfolio characteristics, namely, its previous experience with a drug or therapy reduces the cost of preparing an ANDA and increases the probability of entry. A subsidiary's parent's experience is not generally significant in predicting entry of the subsidiary. Firms also prefer entering markets that are similar, in terms of revenue and sales to hospitals, to markets already in their portfolios. On both scientific and marketing dimensions evidence shows that firms are specializing. I explore several different ways of constructing the set of potential entrants and find the results are not affected by methodological variation. Standard IO theory suggests that profits per entrant will decline in the number of entrants. Previous research has found that generic prices depend on the number of generic entrants, and the results presented here show that the total number of entrants increases with the size of the market (revenue). These findings imply that generic firms face a negative competition externality which makes their expectations about who else might be planning to enter any given market important in the entry decision. The limited evidence on entrant beliefs supports this conjecture as do several features of a regulatory upheaval when firms began entering different markets than they had in the past.

Suggested Citation

  • Fiona M. Scott Morton, 1997. "Entry Decisions in the Generic Pharmaceutical Industry," NBER Working Papers 6190, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:6190
    Note: IO
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w6190.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Berry, Steven T, 1992. "Estimation of a Model of Entry in the Airline Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(4), pages 889-917, July.
    2. Timothy F. Bresnahan & Peter C. Reiss, 1990. "Entry in Monopoly Market," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 57(4), pages 531-553.
    3. Kirman, William I. & Masson, Robert T., 1986. "Capacity signals and entry deterrence," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 25-42, March.
    4. Richard G. Frank & David S. Salkever, 1997. "Generic Entry and the Pricing of Pharmaceuticals," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(1), pages 75-90, March.
    5. Joseph Farrell, 1987. "Cheap Talk, Coordination, and Entry," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 18(1), pages 34-39, Spring.
    6. Bresnahan, Timothy F. & Reiss, Peter C., 1991. "Empirical models of discrete games," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1-2), pages 57-81.
    7. Harrington, Joseph Jr., 1989. "Collusion and predation under (almost) free entry," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 381-401.
    8. Bolton, Patrick & Farrell, Joseph, 1990. "Decentralization, Duplication, and Delay," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(4), pages 803-826, August.
    9. Bresnahan, Timothy F & Reiss, Peter C, 1991. "Entry and Competition in Concentrated Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(5), pages 977-1009, October.
    10. Timothy F. Bresnahan & Peter C. Reiss, 1987. "Do Entry Conditions Vary across Markets?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 18(3, Specia), pages 833-882.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Andrew Ching, 2000. "Dynamic Equilibrium in the US Prescription Drug Market After Patent Expiration," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1242, Econometric Society.
    2. Gianni Amisano & Maria Letizia Giorgetti, 2005. "Entry in Pharmaceutical submarkets: A Bayesian Panel Probit Approach," Working Papers ubs0511, University of Brescia, Department of Economics.
    3. Magazzini, Laura & Pammolli, Fabio & Riccaboni, Massimo, 2004. "Dynamic Competition in Pharmaceuticals: Patent Expiry, Generic Penetration, and Industry Structure," MPRA Paper 15968, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Erik Canton & Ed Westerhout, 1999. "A model for the Dutch pharmaceutical market," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(5), pages 391-402, August.
    5. Laura Magazzini & Fabio Pammolli & Massimo Riccaboni, 2004. "Dynamic competition in pharmaceuticals," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 5(2), pages 175-182, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nishida, Mitsukuni & Gil, Ricard, 2014. "Regulation, enforcement, and entry: Evidence from the Spanish local TV industry," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 11-23.
    2. Sault, Joanne & Tovianen, Otto & Waterson, Michael, 2003. "Learning And Location," Economic Research Papers 269587, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    3. Otto Toivanen & Michael Waterson, 2005. "Market Structure and Entry: Where's the Beef?," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 36(3), pages 680-699, Autumn.
    4. Ting Zhu & Vishal Singh, 2009. "Spatial competition with endogenous location choices: An application to discount retailing," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 1-35, March.
    5. Toivanen, Otto & Waterson, Michael, 2000. "Empirical research on discrete choice game theory models of entry: An illustration," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(4-6), pages 985-992, May.
    6. Martin Pesendorfer & Philipp Schmidt-Dengler, 2003. "Identification and Estimation of Dynamic Games," NBER Working Papers 9726, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Joan-Ramon Borrell, 2005. "Patents and the faster introduction of new drugs in developing countries," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(6), pages 379-382.
    8. Victor Aguirregabiria & Pedro Mira, 2007. "Sequential Estimation of Dynamic Discrete Games," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(1), pages 1-53, January.
    9. Aradillas-Lopez, Andres, 2012. "Pairwise-difference estimation of incomplete information games," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 168(1), pages 120-140.
    10. Vishal Singh & Ting Zhu, 2008. "Pricing and Market Concentration in Oligopoly Markets," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 27(6), pages 1020-1035, 11-12.
    11. Xiao, Mo & Orazem, Peter F., 2011. "Does the fourth entrant make any difference?: Entry and competition in the early U.S. broadband market," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 547-561, September.
    12. Liu, An-Hsiang & Siebert, Ralph B., 2022. "The competitive effects of declining entry costs over time: Evidence from the static random access memory market," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    13. Victor Aguirregabiria & Victor Aguirregabiria & Aviv Nevo & Aviv Nevo, 2010. "Recent Developments in Empirical IO: Dynamic Demand and Dynamic Games," Working Papers tecipa-419, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
    14. Catherine Schaumans & Frank Verboven, 2008. "Entry and regulation: evidence from health care professions," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 39(4), pages 949-972, December.
    15. Kline, Brendan & Tamer, Elie, 2012. "Bounds for best response functions in binary games," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 166(1), pages 92-105.
    16. Paul L. E. Grieco, 2014. "Discrete games with flexible information structures: an application to local grocery markets," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 45(2), pages 303-340, June.
    17. Pedro L Marin, 1995. "The Remains of Regulation: Airlines Profits After Liberalization," STICERD - Economics of Industry Papers 12, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
    18. Marcoux, Mathieu, 2022. "Strategic interactions in mobile network investment with a new entrant and unobserved heterogeneity," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    19. Michaela Draganska & Sanjog Misra & Victor Aguirregabiria & Pat Bajari & Liran Einav & Paul Ellickson & Dan Horsky & Sridhar Narayanan & Yesim Orhun & Peter Reiss & Katja Seim & Vishal Singh & Raphael, 2008. "Discrete choice models of firms’ strategic decisions," Marketing Letters, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 399-416, December.
    20. Paul Ellickson & Beresteanu Arie, 2005. "The Dynamics of Retail Oligopolies," 2005 Meeting Papers 829, Society for Economic Dynamics.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • L65 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - Chemicals; Rubber; Drugs; Biotechnology; Plastics
    • L21 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Business Objectives of the Firm

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:6190. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.