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Transition to a Fully Funded Pension System: Five Economic Issues

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  • Martin Feldstein

Abstract

This paper provides a relatively nontechnical discussion of the effects of shifting from a pay-as-you-go system of Social Security pensions to a fully funded plan based on individual accounts. The analysis discusses the rationale for such a shift and deals with five common problems: (1) the nature of the transition path; (2) the effect of the shift on national saving and capital accumulation; (3) the rate of return that such accounts would earn; (4) the risks of unfunded and funded systems; and (5) the distributional effects of the shift.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Feldstein, 1997. "Transition to a Fully Funded Pension System: Five Economic Issues," NBER Working Papers 6149, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:6149
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Feldstein, Martin & Horioka, Charles, 1980. "Domestic Saving and International Capital Flows," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 90(358), pages 314-329, June.
    2. Martin Feldstein & Andrew Samwick, 1998. "The Transition Path in Privatizing Social Security," NBER Chapters, in: Privatizing Social Security, pages 215-264, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1996. "Privatization of Social Security: How It Works and Why It Matters," NBER Chapters, in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 10, pages 1-32, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Feldstein, Martin, 1996. "The Missing Piece in Policy Analysis: Social Security Reform," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 1-14, May.
    5. Martin Feldstein & Andrew Samwick, 1997. "The Economics of Prefunding Social Security and Medicare Benefits," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 115-164, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Olivia S. Mitchell, 1999. "New Evidence on the Money's Worth of Individual Annuities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(5), pages 1299-1318, December.
    7. Olivia S. Mitchell, 1998. "Administrative Costs in Public and Private Retirement Systems," NBER Chapters, in: Privatizing Social Security, pages 403-456, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Feldstein, Martin & Liebman, Jeffrey B., 2002. "Social security," Handbook of Public Economics, in: A. J. Auerbach & M. Feldstein (ed.), Handbook of Public Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 32, pages 2245-2324, Elsevier.
    9. Martin Feldstein & Philippe Bacchetta, 1991. "National Saving and International Investment," NBER Chapters, in: National Saving and Economic Performance, pages 201-226, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Morris Goldstein & Michael Mussa, 1993. "The integration of world capital markets," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 245-330.
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    Cited by:

    1. Svend Jensen & Jukka Lassila, 2002. "Reforming Social Security in a Transition Economy: The Case of Lithuania," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 17-36.
    2. John Geanakoplos & Olivia S. Mitchell & Stephen P. Zeldes, "undated". "Social Security Money's Worth," Pension Research Council Working Papers 97-20, Wharton School Pension Research Council, University of Pennsylvania.
    3. John Geanakoplos & Olivia S. Mitchell & Stephen P. Zeldes, "undated". "Would a Privatized Social Security System Really Pay a Higher Rate of Return?," Pension Research Council Working Papers 98-6, Wharton School Pension Research Council, University of Pennsylvania.
    4. Krzysztof Kompa & Dorota Witkowska, 2014. "Pension Funds in Poland: Efficiency Analysis for Years 1999-2013," Dynamic Econometric Models, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 14, pages 105-124.
    5. Lee, Ronald & Mason, Andrew & Miller, Timothy, 2000. "From Transfers to Individual Responsibility: Implications for Savings and Capital Accumulation in Taiwan and the United States," Arbetsrapport 2000:3, Institute for Futures Studies.
    6. Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Kent Smetters & Jan Walliser, 1999. "Privatizing Social Security in the U.S. -- Comparing the Options," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(3), pages 532-574, July.
    7. Storesletten, Kjetil & Telmer, Chris I. & Yaron, Amir, 1999. "The risk-sharing implications of alternative social security arrangements," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 213-259, June.
    8. Juan Carlos Conesa & Carlos Garriga, 2000. "Reforma del sistema de seguridad social y adquisición de formación," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 24(2), pages 271-295, May.
    9. Kompa, Krzysztof & Witkowska, Dorota, 2015. "Pension System in Poland: Performance of Pension Funds/El Sistema de Pensiones en Polonia: Rendimiento de los Fondos de Pensiones," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 33, pages 965-984, Septiembr.
    10. Mario Holzner & Stefan Jestl & David Pichler, 2022. "Public and private pension systems and macroeconomic volatility in OECD countries," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 69(2), pages 131-168, May.
    11. Thomas Url, 2001. "Ertragsrisken kapitalgedeckter Pensionssysteme," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 74(2), pages 121-128, February.
    12. Jonathan Gruber & David A. Wise, 2002. "Different Approaches to Pension Reform from an Economic Point of View," NBER Chapters, in: Social Security Pension Reform in Europe, pages 49-84, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Galasso, Vincenzo & D'Amato, Marcello, 2002. "Aggregate Risk, Political Constraints and Social Security Design," CEPR Discussion Papers 3330, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Kent Smetters & Jan Walliser, 2001. "Finding a Way Out of America's Demographic Dilemma," NBER Working Papers 8258, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Lorenzo Forni & Raffaela Giordano, 2001. "Funding a PAYG pension system: the case of Italy," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 22(4), pages 487-526., December.
    16. repec:pid:wpaper:2010:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Hans-Werner Sinn, 2000. "Why a Funded Pension System is Needed and Why It is Not Needed," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 7(4), pages 389-410, August.
    18. Amjad, Rashid & Din, Musleh ud, 2010. "Economic and social impact of global financial crisis: implications for macroeconomic and development policies in South Asia," MPRA Paper 38150, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Jesus Ferreiro & Felipe Serrano, 2012. "Expectations, uncertainty and institutions. An application to the analysis of social security reforms," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2), pages 253-266, October.
    20. Ahmed, Javed & Barber, Brad M. & Odean, Terrance, 2018. "Made poorer by choice: Worker outcomes in social security vs. private retirement accounts," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 311-322.
    21. Carlos Garriga, 2005. "Un análisis de equilibrio general de dos propuestas de reforma de la seguridad social," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 29(1), pages 117-148, January.
    22. Kubicek, Jan, 2005. "Contribution rates to funded pension systems in the new member countries," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 266-280, June.
    23. Ronald Lee & Andrew Mason & Timothy Miller, 2003. "Saving, Wealth and the Transition from Transfers to Individual Responsibility: The Cases of Taiwan and the United States," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 105(3), pages 339-358, September.
    24. Martin Feldstein & Elena Ranguelova, 1998. "Individual Risk and Intergenerational Risk Sharing in an Investment-Based Social Security Program," NBER Working Papers 6839, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment

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