IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/3743.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Expected Changes in the Workforce and Implications for Labor Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Phillip B. Levine
  • Olivia S. Mitchell

Abstract

This paper examines the likely effects of the aging of the baby boom on labor force attachment, unemployment, and wages. Labor market trends between now and 2020 are the focus of analysis, when the majority of the baby boom generation will confront its retirement decision. We begin by reviewing past labor force trends and discussing important limitations of existing projection methods. Key elements needed to project the consequences of the demographic shock facing the labor market are identified. The task of developing a fully specified economic model to examine the effect of the aging of the baby boom on the labor market is as yet incomplete. On the basis of the best available evidence, we suggest the following conclusions can be drawn: The trend towards earlier retirement will slow and perhaps reverse in the next few decades. Unemployment should fall among older workers and the aggregate full-employment unemployment rate should also decline as the baby boom ages. The aging of the baby boom will not depress wages substantially, either for older workers or for other demographic groups.

Suggested Citation

  • Phillip B. Levine & Olivia S. Mitchell, 1991. "Expected Changes in the Workforce and Implications for Labor Markets," NBER Working Papers 3743, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3743
    Note: LS
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w3743.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alan L. Gustman & Thomas L. Steinmeier, 1991. "Changing the Social Security Rules for Work after 65," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 44(4), pages 733-745, July.
    2. repec:hoo:wpaper:e-88-34 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Phillip B. Levine & Olivia S. Mitchell, 1988. "The Baby Boom's Legacy: Relative Wages in the 21st Century," NBER Working Papers 2501, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Edward P. Lazear, 1990. "Adjusting to an Aging Labor Force," NBER Chapters, in: Issues in the Economics of Aging, pages 287-316, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Alan L. Gustman & Thomas L. Steinmeier, 1984. "Partial Retirement and the Analysis of Retirement Behavior," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 37(3), pages 403-415, April.
    6. Joseph F. Quinn & Richard V. Burkhauser & Daniel A. Myers, 1990. "Passing the Torch: The Influence of Economic Incentives on Work and Retirement," Books from Upjohn Press, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, number pt, December.
    7. Lumsdaine, Robin L. & Stock, James H. & Wise, David A., 1990. "Efficient windows and labor force reduction," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 131-159, November.
    8. Richard V. Burkhauser & Joseph F. Quinn, 1983. "Is Mandatory Retirement Overrated? Evidence from the 1970s," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 18(3), pages 337-358.
    9. Richard B. Freeman, 1979. "The Effect of Demographic Factors on Age-Earnings Profiles," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 14(3), pages 289-318.
    10. Hutchens, Robert, 1986. "Delayed Payment Contracts and a Firm's Propensity to Hire Older Workers," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 4(4), pages 439-457, October.
    11. Olivia S. Mitchell & Rebecca A. Luzadis, 1988. "Changes in Pension Incentives through Time," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 42(1), pages 100-108, October.
    12. Levine, Phillip B & Mitchell, Olivia S, 1988. "The Baby Boom's Legacy: Relative Wages in the Twenty-First Century," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(2), pages 66-69, May.
    13. Michael Podgursky & Paul Swaim, 1987. "Job Displacement and Earnings Loss: Evidence from the Displaced Worker Survey," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 41(1), pages 17-29, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:eee:labchp:v:3:y:1999:i:pc:p:3261-3307 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Disney, Richard & Whitehouse, Edward, 1999. "Pension plans and retirement incentives," Social Protection Discussion Papers and Notes 20851, The World Bank.
    3. Alan L. Gustman & Olivia S. Mitchell & Thomas L. Steinmeier, 1993. "The Role of Pensions in the Labor Market," NBER Working Papers 4295, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Ruhm, Christopher J., 1996. "Do pensions increase the labor supply of older men?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 157-175, February.
    5. Rebecca A. Luzadis & Olivia S. Mitchell, 1991. "Explaining Pension Dynamics," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 26(4), pages 679-703.
    6. Alan L. Gustman & F. Thomas Juster, 1995. "Income and Wealth of Older American Households: Modeling Issues for Public Policy Analysis," NBER Working Papers 4996, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Alan L. Gustman & Thomas L. Steinmeier, 1994. "Employer-Provided Health Insurance and Retirement Behavior," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 48(1), pages 124-140, October.
    8. Olivia S. Mitchell & Gary S. Fields, 1985. "Rewards for Continued Work: The Economic Incentives for Postponing Retirement," NBER Chapters, in: Horizontal Equity, Uncertainty, and Economic Well-Being, pages 269-292, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Herbertsson, Tryggvi Thor & Orszag, Mike, 2003. "The Early Retirement Burden: Assessing the Costs of the Continued Prevalence of Early Retirement in OECD Countries," IZA Discussion Papers 816, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    10. Paul Hek & Daniel Vuuren, 2011. "Are older workers overpaid? A literature review," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 18(4), pages 436-460, August.
    11. Thomas Flochel & Yuki Ikeda & Harry Moroz & Nithin Umapathi, 2014. "Macroeconomic Implications of Aging in East Asia Pacific," World Bank Publications - Reports 23026, The World Bank Group.
    12. Michael Hurd & Kathleen McGarry, 1993. "The Relationship Between Job Characteristics and Retirement," NBER Working Papers 4558, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Adams, Scott J., 2004. "Age discrimination legislation and the employment of older workers," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 219-241, April.
    14. Bound, John & Stinebrickner, Todd & Waidmann, Timothy, 2010. "Health, economic resources and the work decisions of older men," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 156(1), pages 106-129, May.
    15. Olivia S. Mitchell, 1991. "Trends in Pension Benefit Formulas and Retirement Provisions," NBER Working Papers 3744, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Randall K. Filer & Marjorie Honig, 2005. "Endogenous Pensions and Retirement Behavior," Economics Working Paper Archive at Hunter College 410, Hunter College Department of Economics.
    17. Johnson, Richard W, 1996. "The Impact of Human Capital Investments on Pension Benefits," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 14(3), pages 520-554, July.
    18. Michael D. Hurd, 1993. "The Effect of Labor Market Rigidities on the Labor Force Behavior of Older Workers," NBER Working Papers 4462, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. David Neumark, 2003. "Age Discrimination Legislation in the United States," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 21(3), pages 297-317, July.
    20. John P. Rust, 1989. "A Dynamic Programming Model of Retirement Behavior," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of Aging, pages 359-404, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Jeff Borland, 2005. "Transitions to Retirement: A Review," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2005n03, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3743. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.