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Debt Concentration and Secondary Markets Prices: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis

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  • Raquel Fernandez
  • Sule Ozler

Abstract

In the context of a model that distinguishes between large money center banks and smaller regional banks, we show that the percentage of a country's debt held by the large banks affects the secondary market price of that country's debt: the higher the concentration of the debt, the higher the secondary market price. We also show that the free trade of debt in the secondary market does not necessarily imply that the entire stock of debt will eventually be owned by the large banks. Our empirical analysis incorporates a number of potential determinants of secondary market prices. Among these are variables that are associated with a country's economic performance, variables that can be associated with the regulatory structure in the creditor's country, and the concentration of debt in the hands of the largest US banks. Our empirical findings indicate that concentration indeed has a positive effect on secondary market prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Raquel Fernandez & Sule Ozler, 1991. "Debt Concentration and Secondary Markets Prices: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," NBER Working Papers 3654, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3654
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    1. Eaton, Jonathan & Fernandez, Raquel, 1995. "Sovereign debt," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 3, pages 2031-2077, Elsevier.
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    1. Eaton, Jonathan & Fernandez, Raquel, 1995. "Sovereign debt," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 3, pages 2031-2077, Elsevier.
    2. Cumby, Robert E. & Pastine, Tuvana, 2001. "Emerging market debt: measuring credit quality and examining relative pricing," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 591-609, October.
    3. Alan Alford & Jacques Lussier, 1993. "An Examination of the Price Discount on the External Debt of Developing Countries," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(6), pages 713-724, November.
    4. Hossein Kazemi & Ayla Ogus, 2008. "The Determinants of the Secondary Market Price of Less Developed Countries’ Debt," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 36(2), pages 153-164, June.
    5. Sawada, Yasuyuki, 2001. "Secondary market efficiency for LDC bank loans and international private lending, 1985-1993," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 549-562, August.
    6. Sule Ozler & Harry Huizinga, 1992. "Bank Exposure, Capital and Secondary Market Discounts on the Developing Country Debt," NBER Working Papers 3961, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Sule Ozler, 1992. "Have Commercial Banks Ignored History?," NBER Working Papers 3959, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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