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Oil Prices, Monetary Policy and Inflation Surges

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  • Luca Gagliardone
  • Mark Gertler

Abstract

We develop a simple quantitative New Keynesian model aimed at accounting for the recent sudden and persistent rise in inflation, with emphasis on the role of oil shocks and accommodative monetary policy. The model features oil as a complementary good for households and as a complementary input for firms. It also allows for unemployment and real wage rigidity. We estimate the key parameters by matching model impulse responses to those from identified money and oil shocks in a structural VAR. We then show that our model does a good job of explaining unemployment and inflation since 2010, including the recent inflation surge that began in mid 2021. We show that mainly accounting for this surge was a combination oil price shocks and “easy” monetary policy, even after allowing for demand shocks and shocks to labor market tightness. Important for the quantitative impact of the oil price shock is a low elasticity of substitution between oil and labor, which we estimate to be the case.

Suggested Citation

  • Luca Gagliardone & Mark Gertler, 2023. "Oil Prices, Monetary Policy and Inflation Surges," NBER Working Papers 31263, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31263
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    Cited by:

    1. Cardani, Roberta & Pfeiffer, Philipp & Ratto, Marco & Vogel, Lukas, 2023. "The COVID-19 recession on both sides of the Atlantic: A model-based comparison," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    2. Chan, Jenny & Diz, Sebastian & Kanngiesser, Derrick, 2024. "Energy prices and household heterogeneity: Monetary policy in a Gas-TANK," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(S).
    3. Kilian, Lutz & Zhou, Xiaoqing, 2023. "Oil Price Shocks and Inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 18416, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Hack, Lukas & Rostam-Afschar, Davud, 2024. "Understanding Firm Dynamics with Daily Data," VfS Annual Conference 2024 (Berlin): Upcoming Labor Market Challenges 302376, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    5. Justin Bloesch & Seung Joo Lee & Jacob P. Weber, 2024. "Do Cost-of-Living Shocks Pass Through to Wages?," Staff Reports 1126, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    6. Efrem Castelnuovo & Lorenzo Mori & Gert Peersman, "undated". "Commodity Price Shocks and Global Cycles: Monetary Policy Matters," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0311, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
    7. Cole, Stephen J. & Huh, Sungjun, 2024. "Measuring the effects of unconventional monetary policy tools under adaptive learning," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    8. Ascari, Guido & Grazzini, Jakob & Massaro, Domenico, 2024. "Great Layoff, Great Retirement and Post-pandemic Inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 19068, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Bobasu, Alina & Dobrew, Michael & Repele, Amalia, 2024. "Energy price shocks, monetary policy and inequality," Working Paper Series 2967, European Central Bank.
    10. Kilian, Lutz, 2023. "How to Construct Monthly VAR Proxies Based on Daily Futures Market Surprises," CEPR Discussion Papers 18348, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Segarra, Ignacio & Atanasova, Christina & Figuerola-Ferretti, Isabel, 2024. "Electricity markets regulations: The financial impact of the global energy crisis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    12. Jean-Guillaume Sahuc & Grégory Levieuge & José Garcia-Revelo, 2024. "Revisiting 15 Years of Unusual Transatlantic Monetary Policies," Working Papers hal-04563708, HAL.
    13. Knut Are Aastveit & Hilde C. Bjornland & Jamie L. Cross & Helene Olsen Kalstad, 2024. "Unveiling inflation: Oil Shocks, Supply Chain Pressures, and Expectations," CAMA Working Papers 2024-68, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    14. Philippe Goulet Coulombe & Karin Klieber & Christophe Barrette & Maximilian Goebel, 2024. "Maximally Forward-Looking Core Inflation," Papers 2404.05209, arXiv.org.
    15. Zoundi, Zakaria, 2024. "Wells or Welfare? Macroeconomic implications of the Canadian oil subsidy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    16. Gabriel Chodorow-Reich, 2024. "Comment on "The Dominant Role of Expectations and Broad Based Supply Shocks in Driving Inflation" 2," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2024, volume 39, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Christiane Baumeister, 2023. "Pandemic, War, Inflation: Oil Markets at a Crossroads?," NBER Working Papers 31496, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Rao, Amar & Kumar, Satish & Gupta, Prashant & Dash, Saumya Ranjan, 2024. "Quantifying the impact of interest rate volatility on Asian energy companies: A comparative study of fossil and renewable sectors," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    19. Samahita Phul, 2024. "Efficacy of Monetary Policy Transmission During the Flexible Inflation Targeting Regime in India," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 13(1), pages 70-99, June.

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    JEL classification:

    • E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General

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