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An Equilibrium Theory of Excess Volatility and Mean Reversion in Stock Market Prices

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  • Alan J. Marcus

Abstract

Apparent mean reversion and excess volatility in stock market prices can be reconciled with the Efficient Market Hypothesis by specifying investor preferences that give rise to the demand for portfolio insurance. Therefore, several supposed macro anomalies can be shown to be consistent with a rational market in a simple and parsimonious model of the economy. Unlike other models that have derived equilibrium mean reversion in prices, the model in this paper does not require that the production side of the economy exhibit mean reversion. It also predicts that mean reversion and excess volatility will differ substantially across subperiods.

Suggested Citation

  • Alan J. Marcus, 1989. "An Equilibrium Theory of Excess Volatility and Mean Reversion in Stock Market Prices," NBER Working Papers 3106, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3106
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1988. "Permanent and Temporary Components of Stock Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 246-273, April.
    2. Cecchetti, Stephen G & Lam, Pok-sang & Mark, Nelson C, 1990. "Mean Reversion in Equilibrium Asset Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 398-418, June.
    3. Myung Jig Kim & Charles R. Nelson & Richard Startz, 1991. "Mean Reversion in Stock Prices? A Reappraisal of the Empirical Evidence," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(3), pages 515-528.
    4. William A. Brock & Blake LeBaron, 1990. "Liquidity Constraints in Production-Based Asset-Pricing Models," NBER Chapters, in: Asymmetric Information, Corporate Finance, and Investment, pages 231-256, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Andrew W. Lo, A. Craig MacKinlay, 1988. "Stock Market Prices do not Follow Random Walks: Evidence from a Simple Specification Test," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 41-66.
    6. Leland, Hayne E, 1980. "Who Should Buy Portfolio Insurance?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 35(2), pages 581-594, May.
    7. Fischer Black, 1989. "Mean Reversion and Consumption Smoothing," NBER Working Papers 2946, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. John Y. Campbell & John Cochrane, 1999. "Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(2), pages 205-251, April.
    2. Hwahsin Cheng & John Glascock, 2005. "Dynamic Linkages Between the Greater China Economic Area Stock Markets—Mainland China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 24(4), pages 343-357, June.
    3. Bernard Dumas, 1994. "A Test of the International CAPM Using Business Cycles Indicators as Instrumental Variables," NBER Chapters, in: The Internationalization of Equity Markets, pages 23-58, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Konstantinos Vergos & Benjamin Wanger, 2019. "Evaluating interdependencies in African markets A VECM approach," Bulletin of Applied Economics, Risk Market Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 65-85.
    5. Yamani, Ehab A. & Swanson, Peggy E., 2014. "Financial crises and the global value premium: Revisiting Fama and French," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 115-136.

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