IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/30906.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Inflationary Effects of Fiscal Support to Households and Firms

Author

Listed:
  • Galina Hale
  • John C. Leer
  • Fernanda Nechio

Abstract

Fiscal support measures in response to the COVID-19 pandemic varied in their targeted beneficiaries. Relying on variability across 10 large economies, we study differences in the inflationary effects of fiscal support measures targeting consumers or businesses. Because conventional measures of real activity were distorted, we control for the underlying state of the real economy using households sentiment data. We find that fiscal support measures to consumers, but not firms, had inflationary effects that manifested 5 weeks following the announcement and peaked at 12 weeks. The magnitude of the effect was larger in an environment of improving consumer sentiment.

Suggested Citation

  • Galina Hale & John C. Leer & Fernanda Nechio, 2023. "Inflationary Effects of Fiscal Support to Households and Firms," NBER Working Papers 30906, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30906
    Note: EFG IFM ME
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w30906.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Didier, Tatiana & Huneeus, Federico & Larrain, Mauricio & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2021. "Financing firms in hibernation during the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    2. Forni, Mario & Gambetti, Luca, 2016. "Government spending shocks in open economy VARs," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 68-84.
    3. Coibion, Olivier & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Weber, Michael, 2025. "The cost of the COVID-19 crisis: Lockdowns, macroeconomic expectations, and consumer spending," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    4. Juan Manuel Figueres, 2015. "News on State-Dependent Fiscal Multipliers: The role of Confidence," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0202, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
    5. Chudik, Alexander & Mohaddes, Kamiar & Raissi, Mehdi, 2021. "Covid-19 fiscal support and its effectiveness," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    6. David Baqaee & Emmanuel Farhi, 2022. "Supply and Demand in Disaggregated Keynesian Economies with an Application to the COVID-19 Crisis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(5), pages 1397-1436, May.
    7. Karel Mertens & Morten O. Ravn, 2012. "Empirical Evidence on the Aggregate Effects of Anticipated and Unanticipated US Tax Policy Shocks," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 145-181, May.
    8. Francois de Soyres & Ana Maria Santacreu & Henry L. Young, 2022. "Fiscal policy and excess inflation during Covid-19: a cross-country view," FEDS Notes 2022-07-15-1, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. Cavallo, Alberto & Kryvtsov, Oleksiy, 2023. "What can stockouts tell us about inflation? Evidence from online micro data," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    10. Veronica Guerrieri & Guido Lorenzoni & Ludwig Straub & Iván Werning, 2022. "Macroeconomic Implications of COVID-19: Can Negative Supply Shocks Cause Demand Shortages?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(5), pages 1437-1474, May.
    11. Efraim Benmelech & Nitzan Tzur-Ilan, 2020. "The Determinants of Fiscal and Monetary Policies During the Covid-19 Crisis," NBER Working Papers 27461, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Lorenz Kueng, 2018. "Excess Sensitivity of High-Income Consumers," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 133(4), pages 1693-1751.
    13. Auerbach, Alan & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & McCrory, Peter B. & Murphy, Daniel, 2022. "Fiscal multipliers in the COVID19 recession," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    14. Enrique Alberola-Ila & Yavuz Arslan & Gong Cheng & Richhild Moessner, 2020. "The fiscal response to the Covid-19 crisis in advanced and emerging market economies," BIS Bulletins 23, Bank for International Settlements.
    15. Eric T. Swanson & John C. Williams, 2014. "Measuring the Effect of the Zero Lower Bound on Medium- and Longer-Term Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(10), pages 3154-3185, October.
    16. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan & Veronika Penciakova & Nick Sander, 2021. "Fiscal Policy in the Age of COVID: Does it ‘Get in all of the Cracks?’," NBER Working Papers 29293, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Valerie A. Ramey, 2011. "Identifying Government Spending Shocks: It's all in the Timing," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 126(1), pages 1-50.
    18. Mr. Pragyan Deb & Davide Furceri & Mr. Jonathan David Ostry & Nour Tawk & Naihan Yang, 2021. "The Effects of Fiscal Measures During COVID-19," IMF Working Papers 2021/262, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan & Veronika Penciakova & Nick Sander, 2020. "SME Failures Under Large Liquidity Shocks: An Application to the COVID-19 Crisis," NBER Working Papers 27877, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Karakaplan, Mustafa U., 2021. "This time is really different: The multiplier effect of the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) on small business bank loans," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    21. Kahn, Charles M. & Wagner, Wolf, 2021. "Liquidity provision during a pandemic," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    22. Jordà, Òscar & Nechio, Fernanda, 2023. "Inflation and wage growth since the pandemic," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    23. Faria-e-Castro, Miguel, 2021. "Fiscal policy during a pandemic," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    24. Òscar Jordà, 2005. "Estimation and Inference of Impulse Responses by Local Projections," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 161-182, March.
    25. Joshua Aizenman & Yothin Jinjarak & Mark M. Spiegel, 2022. "Fiscal Stimulus and Commercial Bank Lending Under COVID-19," Working Paper Series 2022-04, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    26. Makin, Anthony J. & Layton, Allan, 2021. "The global fiscal response to COVID-19: Risks and repercussions," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 340-349.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Cardani, Roberta & Pfeiffer, Philipp & Ratto, Marco & Vogel, Lukas, 2023. "The COVID-19 recession on both sides of the Atlantic: A model-based comparison," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    2. Evi Pappa & Andrey Ramos & Eugenia Vella, 2024. "Which Crisis Support Fiscal Measures Worked During the Covid-19 Shock in Europe?," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 327-348, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hale, Galina & Leer, John & Nechio, Fernanda, 2025. "Fiscal policy design and inflation: The COVID-19 pandemic experience," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    2. Daiji Kawaguchi & Sagiri Kitao & Manabu Nose, 2022. "The impact of COVID-19 on Japanese firms: mobility and resilience via remote work," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 29(6), pages 1419-1449, December.
    3. Dergiades, Theologos & Milas, Costas & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2022. "Unemployment claims during COVID-19 and economic support measures in the U.S," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    4. Evi Pappa & Andrey Ramos & Eugenia Vella, 2024. "Which Crisis Support Fiscal Measures Worked During the Covid-19 Shock in Europe?," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 327-348, December.
    5. Didier, Tatiana & Huneeus, Federico & Larrain, Mauricio & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2021. "Financing firms in hibernation during the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    6. Latifi, Albina & Naboka-Krell, Viktoriia & Tillmann, Peter & Winker, Peter, 2024. "Fiscal policy in the Bundestag: Textual analysis and macroeconomic effects," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    7. Abel Brodeur & David Gray & Anik Islam & Suraiya Bhuiyan, 2021. "A literature review of the economics of COVID‐19," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(4), pages 1007-1044, September.
    8. Ablam Estel Apeti & Jean-Louis Combes & Xavier Debrun & Alexandru Minea, 2021. "Did Fiscal Space Foster Covid-19's Fiscal Stimuli ?," Post-Print hal-03351634, HAL.
    9. Pontus Braunerhjelm, 2022. "Rethinking stabilization policies; Including supply-side measures and entrepreneurial processes," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 58(2), pages 963-983, February.
    10. Charles A.E. Goodhart & Dimitrios P. Tsomocos & Xuan Wang, 2023. "Support for small businesses amid COVID‐19," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 90(358), pages 612-652, April.
    11. Graham, James & Ozbilgin, Murat, 2021. "Age, industry, and unemployment risk during a pandemic lockdown," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    12. Michael Funke & Raphael Terasa, 2020. "Will Germany's Temporary VAT Tax Rates Cut as Part of the Covid-19 Fiscal Stimulus Package Boost Consumption and Growth?," CESifo Working Paper Series 8765, CESifo.
    13. Daniel Rees, 2020. "What Comes Next?," BIS Working Papers 898, Bank for International Settlements.
    14. Jaravel, Xavier & O'Connell, Martin, 2020. "Real-time price indices: Inflation spike and falling product variety during the Great Lockdown," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    15. Nicholas Bloom & Philip Bunn & Paul Mizen & Pawel Smietanka & Gregory Thwaites, 2025. "The Impact of Covid-19 on Productivity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 107(1), pages 28-41, January.
    16. Anton I. Votinov & Julia A. Polshchikova & Karen A. Nersisyan, 2025. "Macroeconomic Modeling in Post-pandemic Times," Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal, Financial Research Institute, Moscow 125375, Russia, issue 1, pages 62-73, February.
    17. Max Breitenlechner & Martin Geiger & Mathias Klein, 2024. "The Fiscal Channel of Monetary Policy," Working Papers 2024-07, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, Universität Innsbruck.
    18. Andrieș, Alin Marius & Ongena, Steven & Sprincean, Nicu, 2021. "The COVID-19 Pandemic and Sovereign Bond Risk," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    19. Hinterlang, Natascha & Moyen, Stephane & Röhe, Oke & Stähler, Nikolai, 2023. "Gauging the effects of the German COVID-19 fiscal stimulus package," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    20. Vito Polito & Yunyi Zhang, 2021. "Tackling Large Outliers in Macroeconomic Data with Vector Artificial Neural Network Autoregression," CESifo Working Paper Series 9395, CESifo.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30906. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.