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Covid-19 fiscal support and its effectiveness

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  • Alexander Chudik
  • Kamiar Mohaddes
  • Mehdi Raissi

Abstract

This paper uses a threshold-augmented Global VAR model to quantify the macroeconomic effects of countries’ discretionary fiscal actions in response to the Covid-19 pandemic and its fallout. Our results are threefold: (1) fiscal policy is playing a key role in mitigating the effects of the pandemic; (2) all else equal, countries that implemented larger fiscal support are expected to experience less output contractions; (3) emerging markets are also benefiting from the synchronized fiscal actions globally through the spillover channel and reduced financial market volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexander Chudik & Kamiar Mohaddes & Mehdi Raissi, 2021. "Covid-19 fiscal support and its effectiveness," CAMA Working Papers 2021-28, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2021-28
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    File URL: https://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/publication/cama_crawford_anu_edu_au/2021-03/28_2021_chudik_mohaddes_raissi1.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Alexander Chudik & Kamiar Mohaddes & M. Hashem Pesaran & Mehdi Raissi, 2017. "Is There a Debt-Threshold Effect on Output Growth?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 99(1), pages 135-150, March.
    2. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2010. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes: Estimates Based on a New Measure of Fiscal Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(3), pages 763-801, June.
    3. Chudik, Alexander & Mohaddes, Kamiar & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Raissi, Mehdi & Rebucci, Alessandro, 2021. "A counterfactual economic analysis of Covid-19 using a threshold augmented multi-country model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    4. Valerie A. Ramey, 2019. "Ten Years after the Financial Crisis: What Have We Learned from the Renaissance in Fiscal Research?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 33(2), pages 89-114, Spring.
    5. Jaime Guajardo & Daniel Leigh & Andrea Pescatori, 2014. "Expansionary Austerity? International Evidence," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 12(4), pages 949-968, August.
    6. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368.
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    Cited by:

    1. Brownbridge,Martin & Canagarajah,Roy S., 2021. "The Scarring and Hysteresis Effects of Steep Recessions and the Implications for Fiscal Policy in ECA Transition EMDEs," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9682, The World Bank.
    2. Chudik, Alexander & Mohaddes, Kamiar & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Raissi, Mehdi & Rebucci, Alessandro, 2021. "A counterfactual economic analysis of Covid-19 using a threshold augmented multi-country model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    3. Riccardo Tilli & Paolo D'Imperio & Cristiana Fiorelli, 2023. "Fiscal policy response to the COVID-19 pandemic in the euro area," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 43(1), pages 366-372.
    4. Salisu, Afees A. & Ayinde, Taofeek O. & Gupta, Rangan & Wohar, Mark E., 2022. "Global evidence of the COVID-19 shock on real equity prices and real exchange rates: A counterfactual analysis with a threshold-augmented GVAR model," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA).
    5. Marsh, W. Blake, 2023. "Supervisory stringency, payout restrictions, and bank equity prices," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    6. Swarnali Ahmed Hannan & Keiko Honjo & Mehdi Raiss, 2022. "Mexico needs a fiscal twist: Response to Covid-19 and beyond," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 169, pages 175-190.
    7. Galina Hale & John Leer & Fernanda Nechio, 2022. "Inflationary Effects of Fiscal Support to Households and Firms," Working Paper Series 2023-02, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    8. Hale, Galina & Leer, John & Nechio, Fernanda, 2022. "Inflationary Effects of Fiscal Support to Households and Firms," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt8qt1t3t4, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    9. Evi Pappa & Andrey Ramos & Eugenia Vella, 2024. "Which Crisis Support Fiscal Measures Worked During the Covid-19 Shock in Europe?," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 327-348, December.
    10. Dergiades, Theologos & Milas, Costas & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2022. "Unemployment claims during COVID-19 and economic support measures in the U.S," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    11. Lucas Rosso & Rodrigo Wagner, 2024. "How much does mobility matter for value-added tax revenue? Cross-country evidence around COVID-19," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 31(3), pages 841-855, June.
    12. Konstantins Benkovskis & Olegs Tkacevs & Karlis Vilerts, 2023. "Did Job Retention Schemes Save Jobs during the Covid-19 Pandemic? Firm-level Evidence from Latvia," Working Papers 2023/03, Latvijas Banka.
    13. Bogdan Muraraşu & Cristina Anghelescu & Robert Adrian Grecu, 2023. "Assessing fiscal multipliers in times of crisis: evidence from selected CEE countries," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(4), pages 1627-1654, October.
    14. Degryse, Hans & Huylebroek, Cédric, 2023. "Fiscal support and banks’ loan loss provisions during the COVID-19 crisis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    15. Víctor Manuel Cuevas Ahumada & Cuauhtémoc Calderón Villarreal, 2023. "Government policies and manufacturing production during the COVID-19 pandemic," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 18(4), pages 1-19, Octubre -.
    16. Sariyer, Gorkem & Kahraman, Serpil & Sözen, Mert Erkan & Ataman, Mustafa Gokalp, 2023. "Fiscal responses to COVID-19 outbreak for healthy economies: Modelling with big data analytics," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 191-198.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    TGVAR; Covid-19; threshold effects; fiscal policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles

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