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Quantifying the Inflationary Impact of Fiscal Stimulus Under Supply Constraints

Author

Listed:
  • Julian di Giovanni
  • Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan
  • Alvaro Silva
  • Muhammed A. Yildirim

Abstract

This paper builds on Baqaee and Farhi (2022) and di Giovanni et al. (2022) to quantify the contribution of fiscal policy on U.S. inflation over the Dec-2019 to June-2022 period. Model calibrations show that aggregate demand shocks explain roughly two-thirds of total model-based inflation, and that the fiscal stimulus contributed half or more of the total aggregate demand effect.

Suggested Citation

  • Julian di Giovanni & Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan & Alvaro Silva & Muhammed A. Yildirim, 2023. "Quantifying the Inflationary Impact of Fiscal Stimulus Under Supply Constraints," NBER Working Papers 30892, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30892
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. David Baqaee & Emmanuel Farhi, 2022. "Supply and Demand in Disaggregated Keynesian Economies with an Application to the COVID-19 Crisis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(5), pages 1397-1436, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ascari, Guido & Bonam, Dennis & Smadu, Andra, 2024. "Global supply chain pressures, inflation, and implications for monetary policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    2. Diego Comin & Robert C. Johnson & Callum J. Jones, 2023. "Supply Chain Constraints and Inflation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-075, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Wifo, 2023. "WIFO-Monatsberichte, Heft 4/2023," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 96(4), April.
    4. Aspachs, Oriol & Graziano, Alberto & Mestres, Josep & Montalvo, Jose G. & Reynal-Querol, Marta, 2024. "Spending response to cash transfers to shield households from inflation: Evidence from bank accounts," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 238(C).
    5. Alvaro Silva, 2024. "Inflation in Disaggregated Small Open Economies," Working Papers 24-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    6. Thomas Url, 2023. "Hohe Inflation führt zu Kurswechsel in der Geldpolitik," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 96(4), pages 269-281, April.
    7. Philippe Goulet Coulombe & Karin Klieber & Christophe Barrette & Maximilian Goebel, 2024. "Maximally Forward-Looking Core Inflation," Papers 2404.05209, arXiv.org.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General
    • E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

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