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Adverse Selection and Network Design Under Regulated Plan Prices: Evidence from Medicaid

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  • Amanda R. Kreider
  • Timothy J. Layton
  • Mark Shepard
  • Jacob Wallace

Abstract

Health plans for the poor increasingly limit access to specialty hospitals. We investigate the role of adverse selection in generating this equilibrium among private plans in Medicaid. Studying a network change, we find that covering a top cancer hospital causes severe adverse selection, increasing demand for a plan by 50% among enrollees with cancer versus no impact for others. Medicaid’s fixed insurer payments make offsetting this selection, and the contract distortions it induces, challenging, requiring either infeasibly high payment rates or near-perfect risk adjustment. By contrast, a small explicit bonus for covering the hospital is sufficient to make coverage profitable.

Suggested Citation

  • Amanda R. Kreider & Timothy J. Layton & Mark Shepard & Jacob Wallace, 2022. "Adverse Selection and Network Design Under Regulated Plan Prices: Evidence from Medicaid," NBER Working Papers 30719, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30719
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kurt Lavetti & Kosali Simon, 2018. "Strategic Formulary Design in Medicare Part D Plans," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 10(3), pages 154-192, August.
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    3. Danil Agafiev Macambira & Michael Geruso & Anthony Lollo & Chima D. Ndumele & Jacob Wallace, 2022. "The Private Provision of Public Services: Evidence from Random Assignment in Medicaid," NBER Working Papers 30390, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H51 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Health
    • I11 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Analysis of Health Care Markets
    • I13 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Insurance, Public and Private

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