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The Flight to Safety and International Risk Sharing

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  • Rohan Kekre
  • Moritz Lenel

Abstract

We study a business cycle model of the international monetary system featuring a time-varying demand for safe dollar bonds, greater risk-bearing capacity in the U.S. than the rest of the world, and nominal rigidities. A flight to safety generates a dollar appreciation and decline in global output. Dollar bonds thus command a negative risk premium and the U.S. holds a levered portfolio of capital financed in dollars. We quantify the effects of safety shocks and heterogeneity in risk-bearing capacity for global macroeconomic volatility; U.S. external adjustment; and policy transmission, as of dollar swap lines.

Suggested Citation

  • Rohan Kekre & Moritz Lenel, 2021. "The Flight to Safety and International Risk Sharing," NBER Working Papers 29238, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29238
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Charles Engel & Akito Matsumoto, 2009. "The International Diversification Puzzle When Goods Prices Are Sticky: It's Really about Exchange-Rate Hedging, Not Equity Portfolios," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(2), pages 155-188, July.
    2. Jing Cynthia Wu & Fan Dora Xia, 2016. "Measuring the Macroeconomic Impact of Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(2-3), pages 253-291, March.
    3. Zhengyang Jiang & Arvind Krishnamurthy & Hanno Lustig, 2021. "Foreign Safe Asset Demand and the Dollar Exchange Rate," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(3), pages 1049-1089, June.
    4. Coeurdacier, Nicolas & Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier, 2016. "When bonds matter: Home bias in goods and assets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 119-137.
    5. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5glg8brs7n87c8vqcn2qok0961 is not listed on IDEAS
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Xing Guo & Pablo Ottonello & Diego J. Perez, 2023. "Monetary Policy and Redistribution in Open Economies," Journal of Political Economy Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 1(1), pages 191-241.
    2. Zhengyang Jiang, 2024. "Exorbitant Privilege: A Safe-Asset View," CESifo Working Paper Series 11279, CESifo.
    3. Zhang, Mi & Sensoy, Ahmet & Cheng, Feiyang & Zhao, Xuankai, 2022. "Three channels of monetary policy international transmission: Identifying spillover effects from the US to China," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    4. Martin Bodenstein & Pablo A. Cuba-Borda & Nils M. Gornemann & Ignacio Presno & Andrea Prestipino & Albert Queraltó & Andrea Raffo, 2023. "Global Flight to Safety, Business Cycles, and the Dollar," International Finance Discussion Papers 1381, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Javier Bianchi & César Sosa-Padilla, 2023. "International Sanctions and Dollar Dominance," NBER Working Papers 31024, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Sergio Florez-Orrego & Matteo Maggiori & Jesse Schreger & Ziwen Sun & Serdil Tinda, 2024. "Global Capital Allocation," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 16(1), pages 623-653, August.
    7. Ozge Akinci & Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan & Albert Queraltó, 2022. "Uncertainty Shocks, Capital Flows, and International Risk Spillovers," Staff Reports 1016, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    8. Michael B. Devereux & Charles Engel & Steve Pak Yeung Wu, 2023. "Collateral Advantage: Exchange Rates, Capital Flows and Global Cycles," NBER Working Papers 31164, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Caldara, Dario & Ferrante, Francesco & Iacoviello, Matteo & Prestipino, Andrea & Queralto, Albert, 2024. "The international spillovers of synchronous monetary tightening," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 127-152.
    10. Georgiadis, Georgios & Müller, Gernot J. & Schumann, Ben, 2024. "Global risk and the dollar," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    11. Yu, Wenbo, 2024. "Consumption, exchange rate, and external adjustment during a crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    12. Georgios Georgiadis & Gernot J. Müller & Ben Schumann, 2023. "Dollar Trinity and the Global Financial Cycle," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2058, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    13. Ostry, D. A., 2023. "Tails of Foreign Exchange-at-Risk (FEaR)," Janeway Institute Working Papers 2311, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    14. Christoph E. Boehm & Niklas Kroner, 2024. "Monetary Policy without Moving Interest Rates: The Fed Non-Yield Shock," International Finance Discussion Papers 1392, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    15. Davis, J. Scott & Zlate, Andrei, 2023. "The global financial cycle and capital flows during the COVID-19 pandemic," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    16. Lei, Heng & Xue, Minggao & Liu, Huiling & Ye, Jing, 2023. "Precious metal as a safe haven for global ESG stocks: Portfolio implications for socially responsible investing," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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