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The Flight to Safety and International Risk Sharing

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  • Rohan Kekre
  • Moritz Lenel

Abstract

We study a business cycle model of the international monetary system featuring a time-varying demand for safe dollar bonds, greater risk-bearing capacity in the U.S. than the rest of the world, and nominal rigidities. A flight to safety generates a dollar appreciation and decline in global output. Dollar bonds thus command a negative risk premium and the U.S. holds a levered portfolio of capital financed in dollars. We quantify the effects of safety shocks and heterogeneity in risk-bearing capacity for global macroeconomic volatility; U.S. external adjustment; and policy transmission, as of dollar swap lines.

Suggested Citation

  • Rohan Kekre & Moritz Lenel, 2021. "The Flight to Safety and International Risk Sharing," NBER Working Papers 29238, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29238
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Charles Engel & Akito Matsumoto, 2009. "The International Diversification Puzzle When Goods Prices Are Sticky: It's Really about Exchange-Rate Hedging, Not Equity Portfolios," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(2), pages 155-188, July.
    2. Jing Cynthia Wu & Fan Dora Xia, 2016. "Measuring the Macroeconomic Impact of Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(2-3), pages 253-291, March.
    3. Zhengyang Jiang & Arvind Krishnamurthy & Hanno Lustig, 2021. "Foreign Safe Asset Demand and the Dollar Exchange Rate," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(3), pages 1049-1089, June.
    4. Coeurdacier, Nicolas & Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier, 2016. "When bonds matter: Home bias in goods and assets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 119-137.
    5. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5glg8brs7n87c8vqcn2qok0961 is not listed on IDEAS
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    Cited by:

    1. Xing Guo & Pablo Ottonello & Diego J. Perez, 2023. "Monetary Policy and Redistribution in Open Economies," Journal of Political Economy Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 1(1), pages 191-241.
    2. Zhengyang Jiang, 2024. "Exorbitant Privilege: A Safe-Asset View," CESifo Working Paper Series 11279, CESifo.
    3. Zhang, Mi & Sensoy, Ahmet & Cheng, Feiyang & Zhao, Xuankai, 2022. "Three channels of monetary policy international transmission: Identifying spillover effects from the US to China," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    4. Martin Bodenstein & Pablo A. Cuba-Borda & Nils M. Gornemann & Ignacio Presno & Andrea Prestipino & Albert Queraltó & Andrea Raffo, 2023. "Global Flight to Safety, Business Cycles, and the Dollar," International Finance Discussion Papers 1381, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Javier Bianchi & César Sosa-Padilla, 2023. "International Sanctions and Dollar Dominance," NBER Working Papers 31024, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Ozge Akinci & Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan & Albert Queraltó, 2022. "Uncertainty Shocks, Capital Flows, and International Risk Spillovers," Staff Reports 1016, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    7. Michael B. Devereux & Charles Engel & Steve Pak Yeung Wu, 2023. "Collateral Advantage: Exchange Rates, Capital Flows and Global Cycles," NBER Working Papers 31164, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Caldara, Dario & Ferrante, Francesco & Iacoviello, Matteo & Prestipino, Andrea & Queralto, Albert, 2024. "The international spillovers of synchronous monetary tightening," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 127-152.
    9. repec:diw:diwwpp:dp2057 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Yu, Wenbo, 2024. "Consumption, exchange rate, and external adjustment during a crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    11. Georgios Georgiadis & Gernot J. Müller & Ben Schumann, 2023. "Dollar Trinity and the Global Financial Cycle," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2058, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    12. Georgiadis, Georgios & Müller, Gernot J. & Schumann, Ben, 2024. "Global risk and the dollar," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    13. Ostry, D. A., 2023. "Tails of Foreign Exchange-at-Risk (FEaR)," Janeway Institute Working Papers 2311, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    14. Christoph E. Boehm & Niklas Kroner, 2024. "Monetary Policy without Moving Interest Rates: The Fed Non-Yield Shock," International Finance Discussion Papers 1392, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    15. Davis, J. Scott & Zlate, Andrei, 2023. "The global financial cycle and capital flows during the COVID-19 pandemic," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    16. Florez-Orrego, Sergio & Maggiori, Matteo & Schreger, Jesse & Sun, Ziwen & Tinda, Serdil, 2023. "Global Capital Allocation," SocArXiv 5s6n3, Center for Open Science.
    17. Lei, Heng & Xue, Minggao & Liu, Huiling & Ye, Jing, 2023. "Precious metal as a safe haven for global ESG stocks: Portfolio implications for socially responsible investing," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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