IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/28914.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Shocks, Institutions and Secular Changes in Employment of Older Individuals

Author

Listed:
  • Richard Rogerson
  • Johanna Wallenius

Abstract

Employment rates of males aged 55-64 have changed dramatically in the OECD over the last 5 decades. The average employment rate decreased by more than 15 percentage points between the mid-1970s and the mid-1990s, only to increase by roughly the same amount subsequently. One proposed explanation in the literature is that spousal non-working times are complements and that older males are working longer as a result of secular increases in labor supply of older females. In the first part of this paper we present evidence against this explanation. We then offer a new narrative to understand the employment rate changes for older individuals. We argue that the dramatic U-shaped pattern for older male employment rates should be understood as reflecting a mean reverting low frequency shock to labor market opportunities for all workers in combination with temporary country specific policy responses that incentivized older individuals to withdraw from market work.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard Rogerson & Johanna Wallenius, 2021. "Shocks, Institutions and Secular Changes in Employment of Older Individuals," NBER Working Papers 28914, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:28914
    Note: EFG
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w28914.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Vandenbroucke, Guillaume, 2009. "Trends in hours: The U.S. from 1900 to 1950," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 237-249, January.
    2. Costa, Dora L., 1998. "The Evolution of Retirement," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226116082, August.
    3. Mortensen, Dale T & Pissarides, Christopher A, 1999. "Unemployment Responses to 'Skill-Biased' Technology Shocks: The Role of Labour Market Policy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(455), pages 242-265, April.
    4. Coile, Courtney C. & Milligan, Kevin & Wise, David A. (ed.), 2019. "Social Security Programs and Retirement around the World," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226619293, August.
    5. Tammy Schirle, 2008. "Why Have the Labor Force Participation Rates of Older Men Increased since the Mid-1990s?," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 26(4), pages 549-594, October.
    6. Gary Burtless, 2013. "Can Educational Attainment Explain the Rise in Labor Force Participation at Older Ages?," Issues in Brief ib2013-13, Center for Retirement Research.
    7. Courtney C. Coile & Kevin Milligan & David A. Wise, 2019. "Social Security Programs and Retirement around the World: Working Longer," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number coil-1.
    8. Costa, Dora L, 1998. "The Evolution of Retirement: Summary of a Research Project," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(2), pages 232-236, May.
    9. Andreas Hornstein & Per Krusell, 1996. "Can Technology Improvements Cause Productivity Slowdowns?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1996, Volume 11, pages 209-276, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Blanchard, Olivier & Wolfers, Justin, 2000. "The Role of Shocks and Institutions in the Rise of European Unemployment: The Aggregate Evidence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(462), pages 1-33, March.
    11. Dora L. Costa, 1998. "The Evolution of Retirement: An American Economic History, 1880-1990," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number cost98-1.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wallenius, Johanna, 2022. "R(a)ising employment of older individuals," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 23(C).
    2. Yu, Zhixiu, 2024. "Why are older men working more? The role of social security," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    3. Zhixiu Yu, 2021. "Why Are Older Men Working More? The Role of Social Security," Working Papers 2021-041, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
    4. Tomaz Cajner & Javier Fernández-Blanco & Virginia Sánchez-Marcos, 2021. "Widening Health Gap in the U.S. Labor Force Participation at Older Ages," Working Papers 1298, Barcelona School of Economics.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wallenius, Johanna, 2022. "R(a)ising employment of older individuals," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 23(C).
    2. Nicole Maestas & Julie Zissimopoulos, 2009. "How Longer Work Lives Ease the Crunch of Population Aging," Working Papers WR-728, RAND Corporation.
    3. Blundell, R. & French, E. & Tetlow, G., 2016. "Retirement Incentives and Labor Supply," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 457-566, Elsevier.
    4. Lanza Queiroz, Bernardo & Lobo Alves Ferreira, Matheus, 2021. "The evolution of labor force participation and the expected length of retirement in Brazil," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 18(C).
    5. Kim, Dohyung, 2019. "Health Capacity to Work at Older Ages in South Korea: Estimates and Implications for Public Pension Policies," KDI Journal of Economic Policy, Korea Development Institute (KDI), vol. 41(2), pages 41-58.
    6. Nicole Maestas & Julie Zissimopoulos, 2010. "How Longer Work Lives Ease the Crunch of Population Aging," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, pages 139-160.
    7. Hornstein, Andreas & Krusell, Per & Violante, Giovanni L., 2005. "The Effects of Technical Change on Labor Market Inequalities," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 20, pages 1275-1370, Elsevier.
    8. Nicholas Crafts, 2022. "The 15‐Hour Week: Keynes's Prediction Revisited," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 89(356), pages 815-829, October.
    9. Federica Roccisano, 2013. "On intergenerational mobility in Italy: what a difficult future for the young," Review of Applied Socio-Economic Research, Pro Global Science Association, vol. 6(2), pages 203-216, December.
    10. Becker, Gary S & Mulligan, Casey B, 2003. "Deadweight Costs and the Size of Government," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 46(2), pages 293-340, October.
    11. Moshe Hazan, 2006. "Longevity and Hours over the Lifetime: Data and Implications," 2006 Meeting Papers 416, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    12. Queiroz, Bernardo L. & Souza, Laeticia R., 2017. "Retirement incentives and couple’s retirement decisions in Brazil," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 9(C), pages 1-13.
    13. David M. Blau & Ryan M. Goodstein, 2010. "Can Social Security Explain Trends in Labor Force Participation of Older Men in the United States?," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 45(2).
    14. Pietro A. Vagliasindi & Marzia Romanelli & Carlo Bianchi, 2004. "Reforming The Italian Pension System In The Xxi Century: The Issue Of Seniority Pensions Once Again," Advances in Complex Systems (ACS), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 7(02), pages 241-264.
    15. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & David Weil, 2010. "Mortality change, the uncertainty effect, and retirement," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 65-91, March.
    16. Yoram Weiss, 2009. "Work and Leisure: A History of Ideas," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 27(1), pages 1-20, January.
    17. Kiminori Matsuyama, 2008. "A One‐Sector Neoclassical Growth Model With Endogenous Retirement," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 59(2), pages 139-155, June.
    18. Andreas Hornstein & Per Krusell & Giovanni L. Violante, 2002. "Vintage capital as an origin of inequalities," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.
    19. Vincent Geloso & Raymond J. March, 2021. "Rent seeking for madness: the political economy of mental asylums in the United States, 1870 to 1910," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 189(3), pages 375-404, December.
    20. William Jackson, 2009. "Retirement Policies and the Life Cycle: Current Trends and Future Prospects," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 515-536.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:28914. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.